Accolades

79th Monthly Wins December 2011
53rd Monthly Wins Feburary 2012
36th Monthly Wins May 2012
Yahoo Sports IQ Weekly Winner 7/23/12-7/29/12, 7/30/12-8/5/12
StreakItUp Weekly Winner Round 12 Group 6


Thursday, July 11, 2013

July 12th

1. Cavendish or Kittel vs AOC
Again, why would you even think about my suggestion...see Uconnryan and Mwallack.

2. Jabonlec or draw vs Viktoria Plzen
The Czech league has not begun its 2013-2014 season, so all I have to go off of is the 2012-2013 data. The home side won the Czech league last season while the road side placed fourth. Viktoria Plzen won 20 games out of this 30 matches. The road side lost only seven matches of their 30 matches played last season. This is a difficult match to call because I don't know what form teams are going to be in since they're not midseason. Additionally, I don't know how important the Czech cup is so I don't know what type of lineups the teams put out. I'll take the home side, mainly because the odds favor them reasonably heavily and I'm not well versed in Czech soccer.

3. Chicago cubs vs. St. Louis

I was shocked the cubs were able to beat St. Louis today, and the prospects for the cubs winning tomorrow are even higher. Joe Kelly goes to the mound for St. Louis he has a 4.14 era this season and the opposing pitcher Villanueva has an era of 3.63 this season. Both pitchers have struggled to get wins this season with Kelly being 0-3 and Villanueva having a record of 2-4. I have to pick St. Louis because I think that a much better team although the pitching matchup greatly favors the Cubs.

4. What will be the first score of the game? Touchdown or any other result

In the CFL this season there have been a touchdown scored first in seven of the eight games played. Meanwhile, Vegas currently has a touchdown as a + 105 underdog. The reason for this is the CFL has the rouge which happens fairly frequently. This is really a tossup because although there have been touchdowns scored first in most games this season there haven't been enough games for that to be statistically significant, I'll have to take the slightly favored Vegas result and take any other result.

5. DC United vs Guadalajara
I always recommend a home team with a win or draw option, and this matchup is no exception. While DC united has been poor in the MLS this season, And the away team has been having a pretty decent season so far and have won five of nine road matches. A lot of players are participating in the gold cup and this is a club friendly. I'll take DC united.

July 11th

1. Saskatchewan vs. Toronto
Saskatchewan won their first game against Edmonton 39 to 18 and beat Calgary in week two. Despite not been a heavy favorite in preseason polling. They have come out and had a strong start to the season. Toronto beat Hamilton in week one and lost to a very strong BC squad in week two. Home field advantage tends to dominate the CFL, but I really likes the way Saskatchewn has started the season. So I think I have to take them in this game.



2. Canada vs. Mexico
Canada lost their first match in the gold cup. But the real shocker was Mexico losing to Panama. I don't think I can take a Mexican squad that had such a poor showing in the first game slept in the 2. Canada vs. Mexico

While both teams headed for showing in the first game, the bigger shock was mexico's loss to Panama. I don't think I can rely on the Mexican squad to win by two or more goals. Additionally Canada has a pretty decent defense only allowing a late goal in their match. So I don't see Mexico scoring two goals here. I'll take Canada win draw or lose by one.

Sorry guys I'll try and make more posts. I think it'll be a lot easier in the coming days because I'm trying out some voice recognition software and this blog is a really good way to practice. For example, the software did not recognize blog, and instead put Blobby but hey I guess it's learning.


Tuesday, July 9, 2013

July 10th

1. Who will win the stage? Tony Martin vs AOC
Why are you looking at this blog for this prop?? Go read uconnryan and mwallack, jeez.

2. Ghana U20 W/D vs France U20
France and Ghana played each other in group play and it was a 3-1 French victory.  I see another French victory tomorrow.  Ghana played a grueling game just 3 days ago, while the French team smoked Uzbekistan 4-0 4 days ago.  I think France will have far more energy and will win this pretty easily.

3.  Uruguay U20 vs Iraq U20 W/D
Uruguay has only given up 2 goals the entire world cup.  They beat Spain in extra time in their last match who was the favorite to win the cup.  Iraq sneaked through in a very exciting game against South Korea.  At the end of the day, Iraq has scored 10 goals while giving up 8, whereas Uruguay has scored 9 and given up 2, that's far too much of a goal differential for me to big against Uruguay, I'll take them.

4. Run scored in the 1st inning?
Milone will be on the mound for the A's, he has a 4.11 ERA this season.  He'll be matched up against Liriano for the Pirates who has an ERA of 2.20.  Oakland is 7th in the MLB in runs scored and Pittsburgh is 26th.  No is -150 and I think it's a pretty solid pick.

5. Will either team score 2+ goals in the first half?
I can't find an exact line for this, but No should be pretty solid here too.  The O/U for the game is -150 for over.  So I'd think under 1.5 in the first half would be a slight favorite for both teams combined.  Club America has not scored a goal in their last 3 first halves and Chicago has not scored 2 or more in any of their last 3 first halves although they did give up 2 to Kansas City. No should win easy.

6. When will the first goal of the second half be scored? Before 70th minute or AOR?
I have to like earlier here.  I'll have to check the pace of the game, if it's been open or more stuck in the midfield, but 24 minutes is a lot of time in soccer and this should be a reasonably high scoring game (3 goals).  So before looks like a solid play.

7. Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners
No way in hell I'll ever recommend the Padres again after Volquez's performance, the sad part is I knew better.  Oh well.  I'll gladly take the Red Sox in this one.  They are 1st in the MLB in runs scored and Seattle is 25th (although, Boston is a reasonably hitter-favored park and Safeco is definitely a pitchers park).  The Red Sox might even have a slight edge on the mound with Doubront who has a 4.11 ERA vs Harang who is at 4.92.  Harang has a much better WHIP though, so I'd say the pitching matchup is about even.  At the end of the day though, I think Boston's ability to score runs will win them this one.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

July 8th!

Sorry I didn't post yesterday, sometimes I just get too busy to update it!

1. MyPa or Draw vs FC Lahti
In the Finland Veikkausliiga MyPa currently sits sixth and FC Lahti is in 11th.  In 7 road matches, MyPa has only managed one win so far, along with 2 draws.  Lahti has only won 3 home games in 8 tries. The biggest stat appears to be that Lahti has scored only 5 goals at home in those 8 matches.  Thus, I really doubt they'll net too, and a clean sheet is entirely possible.  I'll gladly take MyPa and the draw option.

2. Fram wins by 2+ vs Grotta W/D/L1
Fram currently sits 8th in the highest league of Iceland football.  Meanwhile, Grotta sits 6th in the 3rd division of Iceland football (two leagues below Fram). Grotta has had 3 clean sheets in their 4 home matches so far this season.  Fram has only scored 6 goals in 6 road matches on the road this season, but of course keep in mind, these two teams are seperated by two divisions.  By streak rules, I always tend to like the lower division team to cover in cup matches, and W/D/L1 is always pretty solid at home.  I'll be going Grotta very tentatively, and might change when the lineups come out.

3. Hits + K's: 2 or 3 vs AON
In Haren's games this year, the first inning has gone AON 9 of the 15 times.  In Lannan's starts, AON has won 4 of the 7 times.  Combining these gives AON a 59.1% chance of winning versus 40.9 for 2 or 3.  Neither pitcher is really a strikeout pitcher (both average under .85 K's per inning).  So I'm not as confident about this pick as I'd like to be, but I'll be on AON and hoping for over.

4. Will either team have the bases loaded in innings 3-6?
In Haren's starts this year, the bases of either team have been loaded during the 3rd-6th innings in 6 of the 15 starts, and in Lannan's starts, they've been loaded 3 of the 7 times.  So No should be a good favorite here.

5. First Batter of the 8th, HWS/AOR
I'll have to see who the batter's going to be!

6.  Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
I'm terrified, I mean absolutely terrified to recommend the Padres with Volquez on the mound.  Like I think I just heard my door creak.  If I get murdered, it was deserved for recommending the Padres.  Volquez has an ERA of 4.73 at home, and Chatwood meanwhile, is sitting with a road ERA of .81.  So you say Blazer, have you lost your mind? Yes, Yes I have.  But the Rockies are 16-26 on the road, that's horrid, and the Padres are 25-18 at home, that's very good.  I wouldn't recommend this for any kind of streak, but if you're trying to start something back up, take the Padres

Saturday, July 6, 2013

July 6th!

Good morning streakers! We've got a fun Saturday ahead of us so let's get started!

`1. Lisicki vs Bartoli
I think Lisicki wins this pretty easy.  The real question is, does she have a boyfriend?

2. Spain vs Uruguay W/D
Spain gave me a big scare last time out against Mexico, but ultimately pulled through and got the win, making them 4-0-0 in the U20 World Cup.  Uruguay beat Nigeria in the first round of the knockout stage giving them 3 wins and 1 loss in the tournament.  Spain is definitely the favorite here, but be careful as Uruguay has only conceded two goals all tournament, I definitely wouldn't put an important streak on it.

3. Cubs vs Pirates
The Cubs send Edwin Jackson to the mound who is 4-10 with an ERA of 5.75 and a WHIP of 1.54.  The Pirates will go with Charlie Morton who in his 4 starts this year has an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.22.  While his lifetime ERA is much higher (4.96), I'd still much rather have the Pirates in this one.

4. Seattle Storm vs Washington Mystics
I'll take the Mystics tonight.  They got off to a great start including a win over Minnesota.  While they have lost 5 of their last 6, it was on a rough stretch that included two games against Phoenix, a road game against L.A, and a tight OT loss to the Storm on the road.  I think the Storm are just without too many of their best players (Sue Bird being the biggest) to be able to beat Washington.


Thursday, July 4, 2013

July 5th

Man, that was a rough finish to the night, having stuck with the Red Bulls and watching the Galaxy win it on two penalties, the last of which was very questionable.  Anyway, we press on!

1. Djok 3-0 vs AOR
Odds are the same of either side of this prop.  I really like AOR though.  Del Potro has won 3 of the 11 matches between the two, and 7 of the 27 sets between the two, including winning at the Olympics (which was on grass).  7 of 27 is 25.9%, thus the probability he wins a set is 59.3%.  Additionally, I'm sure you're aware of all the crazy things going on at this tournament.  I can't take someone to win 3-0.

2. Murray wins in 3 or 5 sets vs AOR
According to the odds, Murray in 3 or 5 has a 61.91% chance and AOR has a 51.87% chance.  Adjusting for juice, it makes the percentages around 55.02% for 3 or 5 and 44.98% for AOR.  Unfortunatly, the two have only met twice both on hard court.  Murray won in 3 sets in their first match and Janowicz won the second one 2-1.  I really don't see Janowicz winning this match.  It's tough for me to take 3 or 5 with that nice hole sitting there, but I think that's the best option. 3 or 5 for me.

3. Dundalk W/D vs Derry City
Derry city is not a very good home squad considering they are 2nd place in the Irish league.  They've only won 5 of the 9 home matches.  Meanwhile, Dundalk has very good road form with 7 wins and 2 losses on the road in 9 matches.  The odds give a slight edge to Derry City, but I think Dundalk with the draw is the better option. W/D Dundalk for me.

4. Will either team lead after two innings?
No odds are out yet for this, I don't think they will be until in-game.  My pick here is definitely yes.  I think that's the best statistical play, as 0-0 probably sits around 25% (assuming 50-50 chance a run is scored in any given inning, which is approximately accurate), 1-1 is around 12.5%, and it goes down from there rapidly.  I'll gladly take someone having the lead.

5. A hit in both the 4th and 5th innning.
Absolutely, this one is cake. Yes

6. Saskatchewan vs Calgary
Well looks like no 8th inning baseball, so I'll take some cfl action.  Calgary advanced to the grey cup last year, knocking out Saskatchewan in the first round of the playoffs.  This season, both won their opening games.  Saskatchewan against a pretty poor Edmonton side, and Calgary against BC who could make a case as the best team in the CFL.  I'll take Saskatchewan with little confidence.  Calgary wasn't a great road team last season (5-4 on the road, compared to 12-6 overall).

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

July 4th

Happy Independence Day!!
Hope everyone has a good day off work (and for those of you who have to work, sorry about that!)

Let's hope for a good day of streaking! (In the SFTC sense, or you know, any attractive girls)

1. Bartoli vs Flipkens
These two have never played each other.  Here's the info we do have.  Bartoli beat Stephens 6-4, 7-5 in the quarters, and Flipkens beat Kvitova 4-6, 6-3, 6-4. Neither of them dropped a set in any previous round (Bartoli hasn't dropped a set all tournament).  Bartoli is a -150 favorite.  Although I hate going based off odds, I don't really have the stats to say otherwise.  Bartoli is my pick.

2. Sabrine Lisicki vs Radwanska
Last round I had Radwanska getting beaten by Li Na, and she won in 3 sets.  Lisicki had no letdown after her Serena victory, beating Kanepi 6-3, 6-3.  Also, Lisicki might be third in athletes I would totally date.  She's so smiley, and cute.  (If you missed the previous installments Alex Morgan is first, followed by Elena Della Donne).  Anyway, both previous matches were on hard court, which, as we've seen from Lisicki, doesn't mean nearly as much as her performance on grass.  I hate going against Radwanska again, especially if she proves me wrong again, but Lisicki is playing amazing tennis right now, can't go against her.

3. 62 hot dogs or fewer vs 63 hot dogs or more.
Last year, Chestnut's 10-minute hot dog gorge contained 19,158 calories, 1,246 grams of fat, 2,170 milligrams of cholesterol, 42,408 milligrams of sodium, 657.2 grams of protein.  All in 10 minutes.  Personally, I'm not ready to believe that an accomplishment of this magnitude qualifies Chestnut as an athlete.  I will, however, give him credit for being some kind of superhuman mutant who is capable of doing things that regular mortals could never do.  Nor want to, for that matter.
Would anyone really take the under? I mean come on, this guy has spent his life training to eat as many hot dogs as possible, and you're going to root against that? I'm taking over on the principle of America and supporting others dreams...as weird as they may be.

4. Rays vs Astros
A disclaimer: The picks I post on here won't always be the picks I pick due to the forfeit button being an option, and I'm not about to disclose my ENTIRE strategy to the public.  This is one of those cases where I might not end up on this game.

Rays will send Chris Archer to the mound.  He's tallied an ERA of 4.40 in his 6 starts.  Lyles for Houston has an ERA of 3.99.  I just think the Rays are far better than the Astros (I mean lets be honest, what MLB team isn't...p.s. I'll give you a hint, none are, I checked the standings). Rays for me.

5. Will there be a rouge in the first half?
In the last game between the Montreal Alouettes and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, there were a total of 2 rouges, one in each half.  I feel like a rouge is pretty much standard across the league, so here are the results of all games so far in the CFL season. It has happened 13 times in 12 games,  thus the chances of a rouge in a half are slightly higher than 50%, in general for the CFL.  I'm going to go no, because last game was the first time either the Blue Bombers or the Alouettes...Rouged?...if that's the word for it.

6. How many points scored in the 3rd quarter? 14 or fewer vs 15 or more.

I think I have to take the fewer here. I know the pick went way over in the matchup last week, but the Blue Bombers really struggle to score (only 39 points in 3 games), and while its not like they have a very strong defense either, I think a few stops here or there will be enough (keep in mind, they only get 3 downs in CFL).

I'll review the evening props tomorrow, probably sometime around the hot dog eating contest.