July 5th

Man, that was a rough finish to the night, having stuck with the Red Bulls and watching the Galaxy win it on two penalties, the last of which was very questionable.  Anyway, we press on!

1. Djok 3-0 vs AOR
Odds are the same of either side of this prop.  I really like AOR though.  Del Potro has won 3 of the 11 matches between the two, and 7 of the 27 sets between the two, including winning at the Olympics (which was on grass).  7 of 27 is 25.9%, thus the probability he wins a set is 59.3%.  Additionally, I'm sure you're aware of all the crazy things going on at this tournament.  I can't take someone to win 3-0.

2. Murray wins in 3 or 5 sets vs AOR
According to the odds, Murray in 3 or 5 has a 61.91% chance and AOR has a 51.87% chance.  Adjusting for juice, it makes the percentages around 55.02% for 3 or 5 and 44.98% for AOR.  Unfortunatly, the two have only met twice both on hard court.  Murray won in 3 sets in their first match and Janowicz won the second one 2-1.  I really don't see Janowicz winning this match.  It's tough for me to take 3 or 5 with that nice hole sitting there, but I think that's the best option. 3 or 5 for me.

3. Dundalk W/D vs Derry City
Derry city is not a very good home squad considering they are 2nd place in the Irish league.  They've only won 5 of the 9 home matches.  Meanwhile, Dundalk has very good road form with 7 wins and 2 losses on the road in 9 matches.  The odds give a slight edge to Derry City, but I think Dundalk with the draw is the better option. W/D Dundalk for me.

4. Will either team lead after two innings?
No odds are out yet for this, I don't think they will be until in-game.  My pick here is definitely yes.  I think that's the best statistical play, as 0-0 probably sits around 25% (assuming 50-50 chance a run is scored in any given inning, which is approximately accurate), 1-1 is around 12.5%, and it goes down from there rapidly.  I'll gladly take someone having the lead.

5. A hit in both the 4th and 5th innning.
Absolutely, this one is cake. Yes

6. Saskatchewan vs Calgary
Well looks like no 8th inning baseball, so I'll take some cfl action.  Calgary advanced to the grey cup last year, knocking out Saskatchewan in the first round of the playoffs.  This season, both won their opening games.  Saskatchewan against a pretty poor Edmonton side, and Calgary against BC who could make a case as the best team in the CFL.  I'll take Saskatchewan with little confidence.  Calgary wasn't a great road team last season (5-4 on the road, compared to 12-6 overall).