June 9th

1) Sharapova vs Errani, Games played 19- vs 20+
This prop could easily be Sharapova wins 2-0 vs AOR as if the match goes 3 sets it seems and easy win for the overs. So then the question becomes, will Errani win 8 games.  Errani has been very good of late.  She had never made it past the thrid round in a Grand Slam until the Australian Open where she went to the quarterfinals, and now finds herself in the French Open final.  That begs the question of how much nerves will be a factor.  It still could go over in straight sets if the final is 6-4, 6-4 or higher, and is all but guaranteed over if a set goes to a tiebreak.  Errani has beaten some very good competition in the tournament, #13, #26, #10, and #6.  Sharapova has only had the prop go over once the whole tournament.  I think Errani hangs in there and at least makes the game interesting, I'll take 20+.

2) Netherlands vs Denmark or draw
This is a game Netherlands cannot afford to lose, and a draw would really leave a bad taste in their mouth too.  With Germany in the group who looks sure to advance, and a dangerous Portugal team, drawing Denmark would not be good for the hopes of advancing.  The friendly loss to Bulgaria isn't encouraging, but a 6-0 rout of Northern Ireland looks good.  Denmark beat Austrailia in their last friendly before Euro, but loss by 2 to both Brazil and Russia.  I have to take a very strong Dutch lineup to get the win in this one.

3) Portugal or draw vs Germany
Like I said in my previous post, Germany looks all but sure to advance, however, they'll need to start out strong against a very dangerous Portugal team.  Despite not looking good in friendlys, a pair of 0-0 draws to Poland and Macedonia, and a loss to Turkey.  They do have argueably the best player in the tournament in Ronaldo.  Germany hasn't done too well in friendlys either as they lost 5-3 to the Swiss.  This prop could really go either way, but I think Germany is able to pull out a win.

4) Winner of the Belmont Stakes from Post 4-9 vs AOPP.
Unfortunatly, neither of the two horses I'd like to see, Bodemiester and I'll Have Another will be in the race.  Instead Union Rags, Dellahan, and Paynter are the top horses.  Two of the three are in posts 4-9, including the favorite Dellahan at +180.  I'll take Posts 4-9 because that gives me half the horses, and none of them could really get caught against the rail on the open.

5) LeBron James pts+reb or tie vs Pierce+Rondo pts
LeBron has been insane in this series and I see no reason that he slows down in Game 7.  If he's going to choke, it'll be in the 4th.  Rondo could go off, but I really see Pierce and Rondo combining for around 19-21 max, and its entirely possible LeBron has that many points even without rebounds.  He'll probably get 5 or so rebounds which makes me think this one will be dominated by LeBron.

6) Points in the 3rd? 45+ vs 44-?
Despite thinking that Game 7 should be a lower scoring game without a lot of pace, I'll take the over here simply because I think the number is set too low.  An average of 4 points/minute will be plenty for the overs, and I could certainly see that being the case here.

7) Pacquiao TKO/KO/DQ vs AOR
Have to take Bradley to hang in there here.  Firstly, he is the challenger, so he'll want to hang in there for a good fight.  Secondly, this prop just always seems to go AOR.