June 7th

Sorry I forgot to finish yesterdays post.  Ended up with 50- and Oklahoma

1) 9- vs 10+
In the series between these two women, 9 of the 11 sets have gone 9 games or less.  I wish we could find out who will be serving first because if Stosur serves first 9- has a decent advantage, and if Errani serves first 10+ has a decent advantage.  This is because Stosur, who has won 10 of 11 sets in the matchups between these two, will need a double break to keep it under 9 if Errani serves first.  Stosur has double broke in 5 of the 11 sets these two have played however.  In their most recent match, and the only one on clay, 1 of the 2 sets was under 10 and Stosur never double broke.  I'll take 9- and hope Stosur serves first.

2) Overton or tie vs Levin
Overton has missed the cut in 3 of his last 4 tournaments.  However, he does seem to do well in the statistics I tend to look at for golf props.  29th in birdies/round and 13th in putts/hole.  Levin placed 4th at the Memorial tournament and has made the cut in 3 of his last 4 tournaments.  He does worse in birdies/round (70th), but better in putts/hole (8th).  I have to take the tie option and Overton, but I think this prop is pretty close.

3)NY Mets vs Washington Nationals.
The Mets will have Dickey on the mound.  He shutout the Cardinals in his last outing which made it 18 straight innings the Cards were without a run after being no hit the game before.  He is having a fantastic year at 8-1 with a 2.69 ERA.  Additionally, he'll be going up against the Nationals who are 26th in the league in runs scored.  He'll be facing Wang who will be making his 2nd start, he also had a relief appearance earlier.  He has a 6.43 ERA, but that's skewed by his poor performance against Atlanta.  However, his career ERA is 4.14, and he'll be going against the 9th best scoring offense in the majors.  I'll take the Mets to get the win here.

4) K's in the 1st 3 innings, 5 or more vs 4 or fewer.
There will be 18 outs that decide this prop.  If 4 of the 18 are K's (22.2%) fewer wins.  If 5 of the 18 are K's (27.8%) more wins.  Due to the %'s, if higher than 25% are believed to be K's one should take the over.  Sabathia has made 235 outs this season, 74 of those have been strikeouts, that's 31.5%.  Price has made 221 outs and 62 of those were K's, that's 28.1%.  The Yankees have made 1188 outs this season, 363 of those were K's, for 30.6%.  Finally, the Rays have made 1197 outs this season, and 426 of those have been K's, which is 35.6%.  Anyway you slice this prop, over is the better choice.

5) Rondo Ast or tie vs LBJ FG's
Rondo has been an assist machine this series, having double digit assist totals in the last 4 games.  In fact, the Celtics have done much better when he passes (10,13,15 ast in wins vs 10,7 in losses).  He averaged 11.7 assists/game this season.  LeBron has been very good in the first half of this series.  In the 5 games he has had double digit field goals in 4 of them.  This prop will be very close, but since it'll come down to a range of around 5-7 for each player, the tie option could make a big difference.  Additionally, Rondo tends to play more minutes than James.  I'll take Rondo for the green in this one.

6) Heat 21- or 22+ in the 3rd?

Looks like SM wants us to get an early bedtime tonight.  So far this series, Miami is 2-3 for the over.  Interestingly, they've hit 21 in two of the 3 unders.  During the season against the Celtics, the over was 2-1.  I'll take 22+ because I would not want to sweat out 21 or under in the last few minutes of the quarter.  That is unless it appears like the Heat are collapsing/given up in the first half.