June 5th

1) Djokovic 3-0 vs AOR.
Djokovic is the best player in the world, but that doesn't mean he's immune to dropping sets.  His last time in France he lost the final to Federer and dropped a set in the round of 32 to Del Porto. In the most recent Grand Slam, the Austrailian Open, he went 5 sets against both Murray and Nadal.  He dominated Tsonga in their last match, winning 51% of his return points.  Add to that Tsonga isn't very good on clay, just 6-5 this season and 33-23 in his career, but I still think he can manage one set, so I'll take AOR

2) Both teams score?
Sweden is a decent favorite in this match and I would be surprised if they didn't score, the real question is Serbia.  They haven't scored in their last 3 friendlys.  Not really sure of any research I can do outside of that.  Sweden did give up goals to Iceland and Croatia, but I'll take No.

3) France 3+ vs AOR
France is probably the most unpredictable team in Europe.  They beat Iceland by 1 and Serbia by 2. Estonia is a very poor side, having already lost 4-0 to Ukraine and 2-1 to Finland during friendlys, but I think they hang in this one, so I'll go AOR.

4) DC United vs Philadelphia Union
One thing I've learned during the NBA playoffs is never ever underestimate how much LeBron James can score.  Is 16- a good pick? Yes, but LeBron can put up points seemingly whenever he wants.*  More importantly, DC United looks like a very good pick.  Currently #1 in the eastern conference (Philadelphia is 2nd to last), and having won 6 of their 9 home games this season.  The Union have only 1 win and 1 draw in 6 road games, and those positive results were aginst Dallas (8th in the West) and Chivas (6th in the west).  This is a team that just lost a game to Toronto, Toronto's only non-loss of the year.  I'll take DC United.

5) 3PM in the 3rd? Celtics or tie vs Heat. 
The Heat average 6.1 3PM per game in the postseason (5.5 in the regular season), or 1.5/quarter (1.4) to the Celtics 4.7~1.2/quarter in the postseason  (5.5 regular season, 1.4/q).  Both teams have players that are veryyy good at shooting 3's. (Allen for Boston, Miller for Miami), as well as players that are pretty good (Pierce/Chalmers).  Wade nor James average over 1 three per game in the playoffs.  I'll take the Celtics, because I doubt more than 4 threes will be made, meaning that tie option looms large.

6)Total Goals, 2- vs 3+?
This one is very tricky, because in US games I always want to take the under because the play is so slow and it rarely seems like goals happen.  However, Vegas has the line set at -153 for Over.  Additionally, looking at these two teams past 5 games, it has been over 5 times of the 10 games.  San Jose's home games have gone over 3 of 7 times, but they are 9-5 on the season at over.  Additonally, 5 times this season, they've scored 3 goals on their own.  Finally, they haven't recorded a clean sheet since March 31st.  I'll grudgingly take the over, and watch the game in utter frustration.


*Excludes 4th quarter.