June 3rd

Already have 9 wins this month, feeling veryyy good so far.

1) Iran vs Uzbekistan or draw
Qualifying for the World Cup is a long process.  Both of these teams entered in the second round of qualifying, both blew out their second round opponents on the aggregate (5-0 Iran, 7-0 Uzbekistan), both won their qualifying group, though Uzbekistan had 4 more points in the group stage (16-12), I don't think that means that much, and this is now the start of the second group stage.  Uzbekistan is at home, and has the draw option, I think these teams are fairly even, so at home and with the draw.  In addtion Uzbekistan gave up only 1 goal, TOTAL, in all of the previous round of group play.  Also, Iran did not keep a clean sheet on the road in any game in the previous round of group play.  I'll take Uzbekistan.

2) Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
There's a small chance by picking this I'll get an extra pick by also taking Spain 3+ or the Giants.  Basically, I see this as entirely a tossup.  Hutchison despite a very good W-L record at 4-2, his ERA is very high for someone with that record at 4.84.  Granted, he is a rookie, and that ERA is most reflective of his early games, and he pitched 7 scoreless innings against the Orioles.  Bard is pitching worse than usual with an ERA of 4.56.  Interesting stat, Bard has gotten a decision in every start he's had this year.  He's given up at least 4 runs in 4 of his 10 starts, and given up 1 or less in 3 starts.  Boston and Toronto are 3rd and 5th respectively in runs scored this year in MLB.  I'll take Toronto to avoid the sweep, but I think this is pretty much a tossup.

EDIT: SM added some props, I'll now being going with Oklahoma.  Ricketts has given up 3 runs in 6 games this postseason, and the Sooners are yet to lose a game.  Arizona St. hasn't been as hot losing a game in each section of the tournament so far.  (3).  Also, the game is in Oklahoma so there's a nice home field advantage.  Only twice in the tournament in eight games has Arizona St. shutout their opponent.  I'll take Oklahoma for the green.

As a note: If you don't think this game will be over in time, Brazil should be an easy win.

3) Spain wins by 3+ vs AOR.
Spain has been absolutely dominate in these friendlys, greening the X+ pickers every game I remember.  I think this is another stomping by Spain.  I can't really find China having a lot of International matches, latest I can find is Feb 22 a 2-0 win over Kuwait.   Spain on the other hand has been dominate beating Serbia by 2 and South Korea by 3.  Now they are actually at home instead of just listed as the home team.  Keep in mind, in World Cup qualifying, South Korea won their group (of 4), China placed 3rd in theirs. I'll take Spain to wipe the floor with the Chinese.

4) Hit in the top of the 1st?
These always seem to be money for yes, and statistically that agrees, but the Cards have been ice cold this series.  They are yet to score one run.  Of course Santana's no hitter against them was well broadcasted, but Dickey did a great job on them today, giving up only 7 hits, and having a scoreless game on the mound.  The Cards first 3 batters are: Furcal (.327), Descalso (.245) (may or may not be in the 2nd spot), and Holiday (.272).  Statistically this works out to a 62.9% chance of a hit, so I'll take a hit, but tread carefully streakers, the Cardinals have been extremely cold this series.

5) LeBron+Chalmers or tie points vs Rondo+Pierce points
Thus far this series the totals for the full games have been (LeBron+Chalmers, Rondo+Pierce). (41,28) (56, 65), (48,44).  There's two important parts in this data.  First, despite Rondo's insane game 2, he and Pierce didn't blow the pants of LeBron and Chalmers in this prop,  LeBron and Chalmers are averaging 48.3 in the prop this series to Rondo and Pierce's 45.7.  During the season LeBron and Chalmers averaged a combined 42.0 pts/game, and Rondo and Pierce averaged 36.8.  I think SM gave the tie option to the wrong duo, and I'll take Chalmers and LeBron for the green.

6) Points in the 3rd, 45- vs 46+?
This prop has gone over 2 of 3 times this series.  I tend to like the under, but I'll have to see how the game flows.