June 2nd

Well a great start to June going 5-1 already, missed the 4th quarter prop, but I'll take it, lots and lots of picks tomorrow

1) Games Sharapova loses, 5- or 6+
This prop seems very weird to me, there's nothing in the history of these two players that suggests a blowout, only once has Peng gotten destroyed (only winning 3 games) but that was in 2005.  However, Peng has been getting absolutely killed lately.  The last time she beat a player in the top 75 was 12 matches ago, and she hasn't won a match in her last 5 matches outside of the French Open.  Sharapova on the other hand has been very dominated, she's reached the final in 4 of her last 5 tournaments and has won 2 of them.  A concern for this prop is that she never lost less than 5 games in any match in Rome, the last tournament, and she's just been very streaky (no pun intended) for the purposes of this prop, losing the prop to 90th ranked Sloane, but winning it in the Stuttgart final against #1 ranked Azarenka.  Additionally, Sharapova has been scary good in the French Open, losing only 2 games in the 1st two rounds.  If you have any kind of streak stay away.  To win the prop Sharapova will need 3 breaks and to not lose any of her own service.  3 breaks isn't that many, I'll take 5-, but this is a really tight one.

2) Couples and Steele score on 12? 6 vs AOS
In the first 2 rounds, these players have both bogeyed in both rounds.  The earliest data I could find on Couples was he parred 12 in 3/4 rounds with a bogey once in 2008, however, that was 4 years ago, so I'm not sure if that's even usable anymore.  Steele parred the hole 3/4 times in 2011, which was his only time on the hole outside of this round.  So then I looked at their performances on the hole this year, i.e. why they missed, Steele shanked one way into the rough, then put his second shot in the bunker causing a bogey in the 2nd round.  In the first round he had a good tee shot, but missed a 5 ft putt and 3 putt the hole.  Couples hit water in round 2 and was lucky to bogey, and in round 1 he put his first shot in the bunker, then flipped one over the green into the rough.  I think this is very uncharateristic of both of these golfers, depending on the pin location, but I'll probably go for 6.

3) Croatia vs Norway or draw
There is a much different emphasis on this game for these two teams.  Croatia will be jumping right into the European Championship after this match, whereas Norway sees this as just another friendly.  Norway has been playing very well of late beating Thailand and N. Ireland, and only suffering a 1-0 defeat to England, in a game they actually were the better side (18-8 shots).  Croatia is also a strong side, but at home and with the draw option, I'll take Norway.

4) Brandt Snedeker and Steve Stricker on 12, 10 or AOS?
This tournament Snedeker has totaled a 9 on this hole, and Stricker has totaled a 10.  In 2010 Snedeker scored a bogey and a birdie before missing the cut, and Stricker bogeyed twice and birdied twice in 2011, 2 birdies and 2 pars in 2010, and 3 birdies and a par in 2009, I think at least one of the golfers birdies the hole, and the odds of a bogey are pretty small, so I'll take AOS.

5)White Sox vs Mariners
I was considering the Washington pick, but Beachy is dangerous, so I'll go with this one.  The Mariners dropped 21 on the Rangers on Wednesday, but I'd be shocked if they did that well in this one.  Despite that blowout, the Mariners still rank only 16th in runs scored.  Floyd has been very poor of late for the White Sox giving up at least 5 runs in each of his last 3 starts.  Noesi has been doing ok, giving up a combined 12 runs in his last 4 outings, but I think the White Sox take care of business here at home.

6) Chicago Fire or draw vs New England Revolution
At first glance, New England appears to be a very good home team, their record at 3-1-1 at home would suggest that, but they haven't won a home game, or any game, against an Eastern Conference opponent.  Also, they haven't gotten anything but a loss against any team above #4 in either table,  0-3.  Chicago is currently 4th in the Eastern Conference.  The Revolution are 7th.  I have to give an edge to the Fire in this one, especially with the draw option.

7) Points in the 2nd half, 101- vs 102+?
This series the result of this prop has been 106, 132, 89.  In the Thunders run in the playoffs so far, excluding this series, the over is 2-7.  In the Spurs run in the playoffs so far excluding this series, the over is 2-6.  That makes the over 4-8 for the Thunder and 4-7 for the Spurs, however, remember this is a different set of teams than the four that produced the 2-7 and 2-6 records, and the 2-1 this series should be held in higher regard.  On the season, the Spurs averaged 103.7 ppg and the Thunder averaged 103.1.  The teams were ranked 16th and 17th in opponents ppg this season.  I think this prop will be veryyy close, but I'll take the over.