May 29th

1) Simone Bolelli vs Rafael Nadal, How many games will Nadal lose? 7+ or 6-?
Simone Bolelli is a 26 year old, ranked 111 currently.  He and Nadal have faced each other twice with Nadal winning 6-3, 6-3 and 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.  These were in 2009 and 2010. Only once in a Grand Slam has Bolelli won less than 6 games, winning only 5 against Djokovic in 2008.  He plays fairly well on clay, .457 over his career.  Nadal is currently ranked #2 in the world.  In Grand Slams he has a 5-10 record for the prop since 2008 against opponents ranked lower than 111.  Nadal is far better on clay than any other surface winning 92.9% of the time on clay in his ATP career.  This prop will be closer than the other two have been, but I still like the over.

2) Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Samardzija is actually pitching very well for the Cubs, especially lately, he hasn't given up more than 3 runs since April 19th.  The Cubs are actually fairly decent at home as well considering their 16-32 record, 10-15 at home and 6-17 on the road.  The Padres on the other hand are horrid on the road at 5-17.  Stults has been a pretty good pitcher this season as well. He's only given up 4 runs in 18 innings this season, but over his career he has a 4.62 ERA.  I'll take the Cubs because I don't think Stults will have another dominate outing.

3) Verlander K's in the 1st, 1 vs AOR
Verlander is an absolutely dominate pitcher and this year is no different.  He has 75 strikeouts in 75 innings this season.  He leads the American league in strikeouts as well.  SM added the possibility of 2 or 3 K's in the 1st so as to offset the advantage "Yes" would have had in the standard K in the 1st prop.  The Red Sox's likely first 3 are Nava, 12 K's in 54 AB's, Pedroia, 25 K's in 200 AB's, and Gonzalez, 42 K's in 190 AB's, next should be Ortiz, 25 K's in 181 AB's.  (22.2%, 12.5%, 22.1%, 13.8%) Went through all of Verlander's innings, AON is 44-31, so I'll go AON

4) Runs in innings 3-5? 2- vs 3+
The O/U for this game is set at 8.5, which should be about 2.83 runs/3 innings.  I think this is definitely leaning toward the over with the 3rd and 13th best offenses playing.  Yes, Verlander is an amazing pitcher, currently with a 2.15 ERA, Bard is at 4.69, but I think 3, while not automatic, 3 runs definitely has higher than a 50% chance of being right.

5) Pts+Ast Westbrook vs Parker or tie
Parker averaged 18.3 pts/game this season and 7.7 ast/game.  Westbrook was at 23.6 and 5.5.  My concern is, as it is with any prop Westbrook is involved in, is WESTBROOK SHOOTS TOO DAMN MUCH.  He's a top 10 point guard sure, but he has Kevin Durant on his team, there's no way he should ever have more shots than arguably the best offensive player in the game.  He averages 5 more shots than Parker/game.  I'll take Westbrook, not because I think he's the better option, but because he thinks he's the better option.

6) 3PM 7- vs 8+
During the season, the Spurs averaged 8.8 3's per game, and the Thunder averaged 6.7.  In Game 1 there were 17 3's made.  I feel like this game is going to end up being a 5-10 point Spurs win, which means, in addition to all the 3 pointers attempted in the second half, there is a good chance, in my opinion, there will be quite a few threes attempted at the end of the game as the Thunder try to catch up.  I'll take 8+.