May 23rd

1) Florida State by 4+ vs AOR.
In 55 games this season, FSU has a 23-32 record in terms of the prop.  Georgia Tech has a 46-10 record in terms of the prop.  I think that alone swings the prop to AOR, but here's some more information, 14 of GT's losses were by 3 or less.  The only worrisome statistic is that in their season matches with FSU, Georgia Tech was 1-2 with respect to the prop.  I think Georgia Tech is a good enough team to hang in there so I'll take AOR.

2) Miami W/SDL vs NC St 2+
In 53 games this season, NC St's record for the prop is 34-19.  Miami's prop record is 38-15.  NC St. has a reasonable home court advantage, as the game is in Greensboro, about 30 miles from NC St's campus.  Interestingly, NC St. has a very good home record of 25-4, and a 21-8 record at home for the prop.  I'll still take Miami because I find it very difficult to pick against a team with a +1.5 spread in baseball.

3) Hamels K in the 1st?
Hamels has 58 K's in 54.1 innings pitched, and the lowest K/IP in a game for him was .67, just based on that a K looks pretty good, but it is necessary to look at the Nationals batters to see who is susceptible to a strikeout. Lombardozzi has only 5 K's in 81 ABs, Harper has 18 K's in 87 AB's, and Zimmerman has 24 K's in 113 AB's.  Total that is 47 K's in 281 ABs.  This would tend strongly toward No.  LaRoche is a likely 4 hitter, he has 37 K's in 141 AB's.  This series the Nationals have 18 K's in 18 innings, but 0 K's in the first innings.  I'll take yes because Hamels is a very good strikeout pitcher and the Nationals have been striking out a lot this series.

4) Lou Williams Pts+Ast vs Garnett+Pierce FG or tie
Williams seems to play somewhere between 12-15 minutes in the first half.  Garnett and Pierce combine for around 32.  However, Garnett+Pierce's FGs in the series have ranged from 9-18.  That would estimate they'd have somewhere around 5-9 FGs in the first half. I think with Lou Willaims getting his assists added on, he will win the prop.

5) Celtics more 3PM in the 3rd vs 76ers more 3PM in the 3rd or tie.
During the regular season, the 76ers averaged only 4.2 3PM during the regular season, they have been slightly better in the series 5,5,8,5,3.  The Celtics averaged only 4.6 3PM in the regular season and this series have been at 2,8,5,7,3.  The 76ers have been better in the series and with the tie option, and no noticeable difference between the two in the regular season, I'll take the 76ers.

6)San Jose Earthquakes or draw vs L.A. Galaxy
The L.A. Galaxy have been absolute killers on SFTC.  Also, the Earthquakes have been very hot this season, with only 1 road loss in 5 games and sitting second in the western conference.  The L.A. Galaxy have only 2 home wins in 6 games and sit in dead last in the western conference.  I don't care that the L.A. Galaxy should be playing well, they aren't, and so I have to take the Earthquakes especially with the draw option.