May 22nd

1) UK 2+ vs Ole Miss W/SDL
It is difficult in general for a team to win by more than one baseball, I once saw a stat that said 32% of MLB games are decided by 1 run.  While I have a deposition to think that for college the % would be lower (no facts to back this up, just intuition), I still think that to take 2+ would require a pretty decent disparity between the talent of two teams.  In the regular season Ole Miss won this prop in 2 of the 3 matchups.  Also, these games were played at UK, whereas if there is any home advantage to be had it belongs to Ole Miss as the tournament is being played in Alabama which is closer to Mississippi than Kentucky (Geography 101).  So I like Ole Miss to keep the game close.

2) Mississippi St.  SDL/W vs Arkansas 2+
A wise man once said, "to take 2+ would require a pretty decent disparity between the talent of two teams."  Ladies and gentleman, in this matchup there is a pretty decent disparity between the two teams, Arkansas, the preseason #4 team in the country vs MSU who has lost to teams like Mercer, Southeastern Louisana, and Central Arkansas by 2 at home.  In addition to losing 2 of the 3 games in their season series against Arkansas by 2 or more.  I'll take my chances with a very good Arkansas squad.

3) LeBron 1st quarter points or tie vs Granger 1st half points
Those who frequent this blog may be aware that I'm a huge Heat hater, especially a LeBron hater, however I do my best not to make my picks based on that.  The important stat here, and the stat SM is hoping you overlook, is LeBron has not sat for 1 minute in the 1st quarter the entire series.  Granger will probably sit around 6 minutes during the half, so what appears to be Granger getting twice as much time as LeBron is actually about 1.5 times as much time.  Granger is not needed as a go to scorer like LeBron is.  Granger has led the Pacers in scoring only once this series, whereas LeBron has led the Heat in 3 of the 4 games.  I'll take LeBron because I think he scores 10-12 in the 1st quarter, and Granger would have to be hot to get that. So far this series, LeBron scored: 6, 10, 11, 9 in the first quarter.  Granger is -150 for 17.5 points in the game tonight.

4) 3rd quarter points for the Heat 23- or 24+?
The 3rd has been a key quarter for the Heat, in this series, if they've won the third quarter, they win the game.  While I think the Heat will win the quarter, I think the pace of the game will dictate their scoring under 23.  Indiana is a strong defensive team for one thing.  And the O/U for the game is 181, which is 22.7 points/quarter/team.  That gives a slight edge to the under, but I'm taking it because I think the pace of the game will slow in the 3rd as the 3rd tends to be the lowest scoring quarter,

5) (If possible) A's vs Angels
What a shock it has been for the Angels, looked really good in the offseason acquiring Puholus (that's not even close) but he has struggled majorly so far this year.  Oakland is doing better than I thought they would.  I think with Wilson on the mound, who's only given up more than 3 runs in one of nine outings (and that was against Texas), the A's bats are shutdown, and the winless Godfrey gives up enough runs to give the Angels the win.