May 21st

Write ups are likely to be a lot briefer than usual for the next few days.

1) Inter Turku vs Mariehamn or draw
Mariehamn has drawn or won 4 of their last 5 home games, unfortunatly for the prop their only loss in those 5 was against Inter Turku, a 3-0 beat down.  Inter Turku has won 3 of their last 5 road games, but I like Mariehamn to do better against Turku this time around, and I'll take them for the draw or win.

2) Shelbourne vs Bohemians or draw
Shelbourne has only won 2 of their last 5 home games.  Bohemians has been poor of late, losing 3 of their last 5, as well as 3 of their last 5 road matches.  I'll take Shelbourne to get the win here.

3) Hit in the top of the 1st?
First three batters for the Braves (judging from last game) Bourn (.320), Prado (.323), and Freeman (.268).  This means their chances of not getting a hit are (((1-.320)+(1-.323)+(1-.268))/3)^3) or 33.7%, which mean the chance of getting a hit is 66.3%.  While its possible there's no hit, I'll take the 66.3%.
4)HR in 3-6?
Yes. Atlanta has 41 HR's in 42 games, and Cincinnati has 36 HR's in 40 games.  That means it is most likely there will be 2 HR's this game.  Also, pitching-wise, Leake has given up 6 HR's in 7 outings, and is averaging 6.26 innings/HR, and Minor has given up 8 HR's in 8 starts, and is averaging 5.87 innings/HR.  If you'd prefer vegas odds, the best analogy I can find is, +550 that no HR is hit during the game.  I think no matter how you spin it, yes is the better pick.

5) 7 pitch AB in the 8th?
While I cannot find any specific statistics, and do not have the time to go back into box scores and look at a sample of 8th inning games.  Having watched baseball, I think its reasonable to say theres only about a 60% chance an AB goes to a full count, and then the next pitch would still need to be fouled off.  I like No, and I like the new prop from the SM.  Unfortunatly, I don't have any statistics on this yet, but when I have the time I'll do research on this type of prop.
6)Lakers SDL/W vs Thunder DD
Going SDL/W, Lakers were 13-4 in this prop in road games against playoff teams. Also, outside of game 1, every game in this series has been close, and statistically, the Lakers have done poorly in every game so far.  I know L.A. has a history of packing up in these types of situations, but I think they hang in here and get the job done.