May 20th

1) AGF Aarhus or draw vs AC Horsens
AC Horsens is 3rd in the Danish table, which Aarhus sits 5th.  Horsens has a decent home record, winning 8 and drawing or losing 7.  Aarhus is very good on the road.  They have only lost 4 of 16 road games. Interestingly, in these two teams matchups this season, the road team has won convicingly, Aarhus 3-0, and Horsens 3-1.  Aarhus only has 7 losses in 31 games this season, and I don't think they pick one up here.  Going Aarhus W/D.

2)Notre Dame vs Virginia
I have actually watched a few of UVA's games this season (for Streak purposes) and they always seem to look a very good team.  I saw Virginia as a -135 favorite.  Also, looking at their schedule, their only losses were to #3 Duke, #8 UNC, and #2 Johns Hopkins.  They also beat UNC, Syracuse, Cornell, and Maryland, which are all very good teams.  Notre Dame lost to Penn State and St. Johns, neither of whom made it to the tournament, but they have some pretty good wins: Duke, Syracuse, Ohio State.  I think Virginia is the more battle-tested team, which is why I think they pull out a tight win.

3) Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies
The Rockies will send Guthrie to the mound to try to avoid a home sweep by the Mariners.  Guthrie moved to the Rockies this season after being a long time pitcher for the Orioles.  For some reason, he has yet to settle into Coors Field and is at a pitiful 10.45 ERA in his two starts there.  Beavan for Seattle is 1-4 on the year.  He's got a 5.06 road ERA in four starts.  I think Guthrie settles in and gives the Rockies a great outing and the win.

4) A run in the first two innings?
I think this one is a freebee from SM.  The line is set at 7.  Additionally, the chances of a run being scored in the first inning alone are +125.  I really doubt no one will score with 4 half innings worth of chances.

5) More hits innings 4-6?
I have a tendancy to go with the tie option on these props.  Most likely the number of hits for each team will be 1-4, I'd say there's about an 80% chance of that.  That leaves 16 possible combinations, 4 of which are ties.  That means I estimate a 20% chance of a tie.  That means to go with one specific team, I would have to believe there is only a 29% chance of the other team having more hits.  I don't think this is the case for either team, so I'll go with the Dodgers.  Also, I have no memory of the tie option losing this prop...Anyone?

6)Batters K'd in the 8th? 0 or 1 vs 2+
I think 0 or 1 tends to be a better option here.  Obviously it depends on the relievers who are sent in, but think about it this way.  Another common prop is "Will pitcher X have a K in the 1st inning?" If you pick 2+ you are saying both pitcher X and pitcher Y will have a K in their half of the inning, or one of them will have 2 K's.  While I haven't run statistics to see how often 2 K's occur in the same half inning, from watching the games, it doesn't seem to be very frequent.  I think 0 or 1 has a statistical advantage, but again it depends if the relievers are strikeout pitchers or not.

7) (If possible) Clippers W/SDL vs Spurs DD
The Clippers are getting absolutely trashed this series.  However, at home during the regular season they lost only 3 games by double digits, and none after February 28th.  Of course, that stat went out the window after a double digit loss to the Spurs yesterday, but I think the point is a good one.  I don't think the Clippers get trashed in game 4 on their home floor.  I don't really think they'll win, but I think they'll at least have enough pride to keep it close.