May 17th

1) Rocco Mediate or tie vs Chez Reavie
The tie has won every 9 hole golf prop so far this month.  Reavie has been extremely poor of late having missed his last 3 cuts.  Mediate on the other hand has made his last three cuts, although he did not participate at the Players Championship. Those two alone are enough for me to take Mediate.

2) USA vs Finland
I don't even need to hop onto the Patriot bandwagon for this one.  In the group stage USA was 6-1 and Finland was 5-2.  The biggest reason I'm taking USA is their 5-0 blowout of Finland in the preliminary round.  No reason a team that wins 5-0 in hockey should turn around and lose to that same team 4 days later.  This one is pretty close to a lock I think.  I realize a loss could happen, but I like the Stars and Stripes for the Green.

3) Arizona vs Colorado
I'm going to take the Diamondbacks in this one. Let's start with the pitching matchup.
Juan Nicasio, Rockies, 4.65 ERA, .15 HR/inning, 1.48 WHIP.
Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks, 3.65 ERA, .02 HR/inning, 1.22 WHIP.
Despite their records (Nicasio 2-1, Cahill 2-4) I think the clear pitching advantage goes to the Dbacks.
Hitting wise Colorado has a slight advantage averaging 4.88 runs/game to Arizona's 4.00, but I think the pitching matchup is too much.  Also, the Dbacks are a surprisingly decent road team (9-10 on the road).

4) LeBron points vs West points+rebounds or tie
As much as I hate to take LeBron I think this prop is a near lock for him.  West is an extremely good player, but the Pacers spread the ball around more than any team in the NBA, and West is such a good fit, he could go into the locker room with 4 points and be perfectly happy.  The Heat will have to force the ball into LeBron's hands the entire game and so I think he wins this prop pretty cleanly.

5) Heat 22- or 23+ in the 3rd
Going to depend a little on the game flow, but I really like the under.  Spolestra is going to have to give LeBron plenty of rest to avoid the criticism he faced/put on himself for not resting LeBron as much as he needed.  I think the Heat will end up presenting a weak lineup for half of the quarter causing this to go under.

6) Duncan or tie vs Griffin Pts+Rbs
Going to take Griffin for the same reason I took LeBron.  Duncan doesn't need to score for the Spurs to win this game, Griffin does.  He'll get a lot more shots.

7) O/U 95.5
I'm going to go over.  Odds say 97 by just splitting the total points, and the second half tends to be higher scoring, especially if the Clippers can stay in the game.