May 18th

1) Ryan Palmer or tie vs D.A. Points
Palmer was on fire on the links yesterday posting a -6, as well as a -3 on the nine holes that matter for this prop.  Points had a good day finishing -2, but was +1 on the nine prop holes.  Palmer is a very good driver ranked 12th on the tour, but with only 1 par 5 on the prop, I'm not sure how much this will end up helping.  Points has placed in the top ten of 3 of his 13 events this year.  I'll take Palmer with the tie option.  While performance does vary day to day, I'd much rather take the golfer who had the better round and the tie.

2) How many games will Federer lose? 6- or 7+
I'm taking this prop because there is a chance I'll get the softball game in as well by picking it.  Seppi has fared surprisingly well against Federer, and despite never having won a match, he did push it to a final set, that Federer won 6-4, in their last meeting in Qatar.  In their 7 non grand slam matches, the prop has gone over 4 times, and under 3.  Also to note, the surface in Rome is clay, and this year Seppi has posted an 8-3 record on clay (Federer 5-1) Also, I'm not sure how much of the "home court advantage" really applies. Seppi was born in Bolzano which is up by Austria, not by Rome, and the same thing with Caldaro where he lives. Yes, he's Italian, so maybe the crowd will be "rooting for him" but if you've ever been at a tennis match you know that the crowd has no effect on the game at all. He's no more familiar with the Rome court than Federer. However, Seppi only wins 80% of his service games, and that's not when he's going up against Federer.  I'd really doubt Seppi to break Federer at any point in the match, so Federer needs 3 breaks in 9 chances, or 33% of the time.  Due to Seppi's 80% mark, I definitely think Federer can do this, so I'm going 6-.

3) Michigan 2+ vs UK W/LB1
I know very little about women's college softball.  I saw a line for UK +120 to win the game, which makes me think +1.5 must be a decent favorite.  Looking at their schedule, in 15 of their 57 games, UK lost by more than 1, this includes 28 losses. However, they did lose to Michigan 3-0 earlier in the year at a tournament.  Michigan won 29 of their 54 by 2 or more, and had 39 wins.  I think UK keeps it close at least, and might even win.

4) Jrue Holiday vs Rajon Rondo or tie 1st Half Points
Neither player leads their team in scoring, which is rare for these props.  While Rondo is a great player, I will be going with Holiday.  First, it will be very frustrating to watch Rondo pass the ball so much if I take him.  Also, Holiday is a major outside threat.  Holiday averaged 2 points more during the season, and with the 76ers trying not to be embarassed on their home floor again, I think they come out hot.

5) Points in the 3rd Q 43- or 44+
The 3rd quarter tends to be the lowest scoring quarter.  Though it will depend on how much of the shot clock each team is using early in the game, I'm leaning toward the under.

6) L.A. Lakers vs OKC Thunder
Have to take the Lakers here.  Steve Blake had a good look in the quarter to even the series at 1 on the Thunder's home floor.  I think the Lakers come out and get a win here, more on this later.