May 16th

First let me state this month has been quite poor as of late, but I'm looking to turn it around.  Somehow I'm only 5 wins from the leader board and 2 behind the messenger.  I'd like to thank seewattswork to be the first person to ask about my blog.  Welcome!  I picked the Greek game falling asleep at 2 am yesterday, thought Atromitos was the correct pick.  Oh well.

2) Goals: Basal vs Luzern 2- or 3+
I have a tendency to like to pick 2- in these props, especially in cup games where I think teams have a natural deposition to play conservatively.  However, here are the statistics for this game.  Basel and Luzern are 1-2 in the Swiss premier league.  Basel averages an astounding 2.38 goals/game, although many of these are scored in big blowout (6-0, 5-0, 6-3) wins against bottom table teams.  They average allowing a mere .91 goals per game.  Luzern or Lucerne same team, averages 1.34 goals/game and .94 goals allowed per game.  In head to head matchups Luzern won 3-1 and drew 1-1 at home, and Basel won 1-0 and 3-1 at home.  19 of Basel's 32 games have gone over, and 13 of Luzern's 32 have gone over.  As you can see this is tough to call.  Stay away with any reasonable streak, as a monthly picker, I'll take the over because I think Basel scores early and forces Luzern to come out.

3) Hellickson K in 1st?
Over Hellickson's 3ish year career he is averaging .67 K's per inning.  Not knowing, nor really wanting to sit through to boredom of going through each inning and finding the standard deviation of how many innnigs he has 2 K's and in how many he has 3 K's...one can about estimate that 50-55% of the time Hellickson gets a K in an inning.  Real helpful GoldenBlazer, its a 50-50 prop, thanks.  Well, we haven't looked at the batters yet.  If we take the same Red Sox lineup that was in the last game against Seattle. 1. Sweeny K/AB=.159. 2. Pedroia K/AB=.096.  3. Ortiz K/AB=.213.  4. Gonzalez K/AB=.205.  As you can see, if a Boston player reaches base and allows Gonzalez to come up, the chances of a K are much higher.  If it is only the first 3 batters, there is a 39.9% chance of a K.  Even if Pedroia reaches, (automatically eliminating him from calculation, yes I realize this presents a small error, but it is close enough to negligible, and there is no K/OUT stat) The chance of a K is only 48%.  Thus, I think it is best to choose No K.  But again note, the best way to do it would be with a K/OUT stat, without it the chance of a K is slightly higher than the values mentioned.  Again, with any streak stay away, as this is pretty close to 50-50.

4) HR innings 4-6?
I've missed the last two props like this with pitchers that had only given up 1 HR in 5 or 7 starts.  Bad luck.  This one I think is a little easier.  Buchholz gives up .256 HRs/inning.  And Hellickson gives up .189 HRs/inning.  That means the chances Hellickson gives up a HR in the time is 47% and the chances Buchholz gives one up is 59%.  Thus the total % chance one is given up is 77.9%  One must take batters into consideration of course, but that makes it even more likely as the Red Sox average 1.13 HRs/game and the Rays average 1.21 HRs/game.  There's an extremely good chance at least 2 HRs will be hit this game, and if that's the case Yes is the pick.

5) Run in the 8th inning?
This one will depend on the pitchers that come in and where each team is in the lineup.  No tends to be the pick, but it depends on the situation.

6) Lakers SDL/W vs OKC DD
I'm hoping to get this prop in after the 8th, but it all depends on timing, if I can't get this, I'm leaning toward the Giants.  The Lakers got absolutely smashed in Game 1, a 29 point blowout that seemed to tell everyone this series was over already.  However, looking at the stats, two major things jump out at me.  First, OKC shot 53.0% to L.A.s 43.2%.  Now while I don't know if OKC's high percentage was due to poor defense or good shooting, I expect that number to come down tonight.  Secondly, the Thunder shot 29 FTs to L.A.s 15.  This difference most likely won't change much, as when a team is good at drawing fouls, that's not a variant thing.  What really killed the Lakers was they had 15 turnovers to OKC's 4.  That's pitiful.  However, I think the Lakers turnover problems can be corrected, and I look for them to stay within single digits tonight.