May 14th

Well right now I'm sitting at .600 since I announced my quest for a string of .700 picking from Sunday until Saturday.  Not looking like an easy day of picks tomorrow, so let's get to it.

1) Odense W/D/L1 vs Nordsjaelland 2+
This is a very interesting matchup to me because I have heard of Odense before as they have played, and been elimated in the group stage of, the Europa League the last two years.  I am not one to buy into tradition or past performances.  Certain players may perform well against certain teams, but certain clubs do not do well against certain clubs solely for that reason.  The reason they do better is because they are a better team.  Thus, for this prop I will be looking at Odense's team and Nordsjaelland's team, not their teams historical performance.  Nordsjaelland is 6-9 with regards to this prop at home this season.  Though this might sound poor, it is actually remarkably good for the chances on this prop.  Nordsjaelland sits 2nd in the table and Odense sits 10th out of 12 teams.  Interestingly, Odense has performed better on the road then at home this year (only six away defeats to nine home ones).  But Nordsjaelland is currently averaging 1.7 goals per game at home, and .6 goals allowed at home, with 9 of 15 games being clean sheets.  In their other matchups this year both at Odense, Odense won 2-0 and lost 1-0.  Odense has been in terrible form as of late though, with 7 of their last 10 games being losses. However, in these 7 losses only two have been by 2 or more.  I'll take Odense to keep it close.

2) Hafnarfjordur vs Selfoss or Draw
You know it's an obscure prop when clicking on a team name sends you to wikipedia.  I think this game is postponed though, so I would go Hafnarfjordur if its on, but I dont think it is.

3)Hit in the bottom of the 1st?
I think a much more interesting prop would have been in the top of the first.  Cards batters seem much better.  Furcal is .383, Jay is .347, and Holliday is .255.  Mathematically this means that there is a ((.617+.653+.745)/3)^3 or 30.3% chance of no hit, or a 69.7% of a hit.  I'll take a hit anyday.

4) HR innings 3-6?
The Cardinals are 4th in the majors in homeruns hit, while the Cubs are a lowly 28th.  The only odds I could find is a +170 on no homerun hit the entire game.  Thus far this season Dempster (for the Cubs) has only given up 1 HR in 35.1 innings.  Westbrook has only given up 1 in 42 innings.  I think No is a reasonably solid pick.

5) XBH in the 8th?
This one will come down to what pitchers are in and where the teams are at in their lineups, but I'm leaning No.

6) Andrew Bynum FGs vs OKC Winning Margin
Bynum has been struggling lately.  In the last 5 games he has averaged only 5.2 field goals as opposed to the 7.4 he averaged during the season, and Denver being a much smaller team than the Thunder, this is concerning to Bynum pickers.  In the regular season matchups, the Thunder won 15-5, and lost 10-9 and 5 to -8.  Both prop losses were in L.A. The range for Andrew Bynum FGs is 1-15, with 90% of values being between 4 and 12.  He had over double digit FGs in 15 of 73 games this season/playoffs, or 20.5% of the time.  Frankly, I think OKC will win by double digits, so that stat is good enough for me.