Alright ladies and gentleman (ladies? I don't think we have any girls in the group...) being 16 back from Juan 2 behind the messenger, and 4 wins in my last 14 picks has forced my hand. I will now enter....the StreakCave. For those of you who don't know the StreakCave is a place I have just made up this morning. It had previously been called my "living room" but now will only be known as the StreakCave. Since final exams are done, and I have a week off of my job before I start full time in the summer, I am dedicating this entire week to streakdom. I will estimate the SM will put approximately 42 props up in the next 7 days. My plan is to win at least 70% of these. I will be posting all of my research on my blog, the group page, or the message board. Ladies and gentleman (still no ladies) here we go: Note: I'm writing this after I already lost on Man City. So that doesn't count as part of the 70%.
1) Man City vs AOR.
My thinking here was this: City needed a win, QPR was the worst team on the road this year (3-2-14 GD -22) and City was the best home side (18-1-0 GD +43) In teams in the bottom half of the table at home, City had gone 6-3 in this prop, and against teams on the road in the top half of the table QPR had gone 6-3 in this prop as well. My thought was that I should take the better team here. Turns out I was wrong.
2) New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union W/D
I've already dropped one prop on the New York Red Bulls this month, but I'll take a chance against them here. Philadelphia has struggled early in the season, but I think theyre a better side then they are showing, and despite their poor early form, they would still be 2-2 on this prop, and the Red Bulls 2-3. Also, despite only having 5 goals so far this year, NY's averaging 1.8 goals allowed on the road this season, so I think Philadelphia nets one, and gets at least a draw.
3) Heat DD vs Pacers SDL/W
The Pacers are no push over of a team. They're healthy, unlike the ailing Knicks were. My biggest concern in regards to the prop is in road games the Pacers lost, 8 of the 14 were by double digits. They were 1-1 vs the Heat in games played in Miami in the regular season in this prop. The Pacers have been very hot of lately, which is encouraging for Pacers pickers, having won 16 of 20 games since April 1st. Conversely, the Heat have been a bit poorer since April 1st posting a 13-8 record, however, in the final two games, the key Heat players sat and so that record is slightly skewed. In home games against playoff teams the Heat are 10-9 in relation to the prop, but after the Pacers easily handled the Magic, I look for them to stay in this game. SDL/W.
4) Run in the first?
The Rangers are first in the MLB in runs at 194, or 5.7 runs per game. The Angels sit 21st at 124 runs, or 3.6 runs per game. That equals out to 9.3 runs per game between the two teams. Important for this prop is starting pitching though, Weaver is on the mound for the Angels, who is pitching incredibly early in the season, currently with a 1.60 ERA this season. In his 7 games so far, Weaver has not allowed a run in the first inning once. Interestingly, the Angels have scored in the first inning in 4 of Weaver's 7 starts. Feliz, the Rangers pitcher has also not allowed a run in the first inning. I'm not going to go Monte Carlo fallacy on you guys and claim that this means they're "due" but I'm also not going to claim this trend in and of itself will continue. I think the Rangers bats are too strong, and score a run.
5) Rangers HR 3-6?
I think this is a pretty easy no. Weaver has allowed only 2 HRs in 50.2 innings this season. That's 1 every 25.1 innings. I know the Rangers are big sluggers, but Weaver doesn't give up long balls, so I'll take No.
6) XBH in the 8th?
I tend to like No in these props, but tonight it's really going to depend on who comes in from each teams bullpen.
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