Accolades

79th Monthly Wins December 2011
53rd Monthly Wins Feburary 2012
36th Monthly Wins May 2012
Yahoo Sports IQ Weekly Winner 7/23/12-7/29/12, 7/30/12-8/5/12
StreakItUp Weekly Winner Round 12 Group 6


Tuesday, July 2, 2013

July 3rd!

1. Who will win the race, Gripel/Sagan/Cav vs AOR?
Why would you even look at this suggestion.  Go look at uconnryan and mwallack, seriously.

2. Murray 3-0 vs AOR

In sets lifetime against Verdasco, Murray is 19-6.  Just this implies that there is a 43.9% chance that Murray wins 3-0.  However, all of their matches except one were played on hard surface and they've never played on grass, which is Murray's speciality.  I think Murray should win 3-0, but I think it'll be much closer than the -200 odds suggest, and I'd say there's a decent chance Murray has to win a tiebreak at some point which will really get your heart sweating.

3. South Korea or Draw vs Colombia

Barely won both of the U20 WC games yesterday with Spain pulling it out by the skin of their teeth.  Colombia won its group with 7 points, they fought off a mysterious draw with a poor Australian side in their first match with back to back wins to advance.  The South Koreans advanced from the third spot in their group, their only win being a 2-1 win over Cuba (who lost by 3 and 5 to Nigeria and Portugal respectively). They drew Portugal, but were outshot 17-8 in that game.  I think the South Koreans were lucky to advance and get torched by Colombia here.

4. Will Harvey have a K in each of the first three innings?

This season Harvey has 132 K's in 117 innings.  So my inital thought is no.  Arizona ranks 20th in the majors in strikeouts (#1 has the most strikeouts).  The end of their lineup is especially good at not striking out (Gregorious @16.9%, and Prado @ 10.3%), so I'd more look toward the second inning, but I think with 3 chances at it, the no is definitely the favorite.

5. Will the Diamondbacks score in the 5th or 6th?
I think no is the favorite here as well.  The O/U is set at 7.0 and the Mets are heavy favorites (Dbacks O/U won't be up til tomorrow).  Harvey will still be dealing, and it's possible the Dbacks pitcher will take an at bat in the 5th.  Without seeing where the lineups are at, I can't say my confidence level, but I'd definitely call No the favorite.

6. Will any batter reach a full count in the top of the 8th?

Looked at the last 10 Dbacks games.  In 90 innings, No won 52 times good for 57.8%.  Now I know there are a lot of factors that go into this, where the Dbacks are in their lineup (the bottom of the lineup seems to force longer counts).  Who's pitching for the Mets, etc.  But as a blanket statement, No looks like the better pick.

7.  A's vs Cubs

As I type this the A's are down 5-3, but I'll be taking them tomorrow anyway.  Colon is 11-2 with a nasty 2.79 ERA this season, and Garza is sitting at 3.83.  Plus the A's are the better team and at home.  Easy pick.

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