Well rats. Looks like I'll have to chalk up a missed pick on the Rays. I was in between sets of military press. Checked before I did my set, no HR, after my set, Rays locked. If I lose monthly on a tiebreaker I'll never do a military press again. Here's about how I feel right now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk Oh well, we move on!
1. Li Na vs Radwanska
Women's tennis rarely gives a ton of stats, but here's what I can tell you. Li Na is 6-4 all time against Radwanska, technically 1-2 on grass, although one was due to retire, so we'll call it 1-1. Li Na has a tendancy to struggle at Wimbledon, only making it to the round of 16 3 of 7 times. Radwanska is far better at Wimbledon, with 3 of her last 5 tournaments making the quarterfinals, including a finals appearance. I think the edge goes to Radwanska, but she is a reasonable vegas underdog. I have to count on the head to head record above all else, so my pick will be Li Na, but I think this is far more 50-50 than it seems.
2. Spain U20 win vs Mexico U20 W/D
I don't think this one is much of a question, Spain flew through their group, going 3-0 and beating some very good teams (Ghana, France). Mexico limped their way in as a third place qualifier. Add in that Spain is -200, and I have to take the Spanish side.
3. France vs Turkey (to qualify)
I think this is another reasonably easy soccer pick by SM. France was in a rough group, and despite a mystery draw to the US. played very well. Turkey was in a weak group, and though they did what was required to advance, I don't see them getting past the French.
4. Elena Della Donne + Prince 19 or fewer pts or 20 or more
WNBA games are much more difficult to find stats on than NBA games, I don't feel like going through the play by play and there's no halftime split. Now look, I like Elena Della Donne, not just as a player, or as a person, but she's also very attractive, like she's my second biggest celebrity crush behind Alex Morgan, but usually the first half of the game is lower scoring than the second. Additionally, the Storm tend to play a slower pace than most of the WNBA, think Chicago Bulls. Della Donne and Prince combine for 38.2, which is roughly 19.1 per half. Also, that's just this season, over Prince's career she's only averaging 13.9. I'm taking the under and hoping Elena Della Donne friends me on Facebook anyway.
5. How many points will be scored in the third? 35- or 36+
This is one of SM's favorite props, because everyone likes to think the WNBA can't score, which is true, and they miss layups all the time, which is true, and they only play 10 minute quarters, which is true, but 36 points in a quarter is a lot less than you think it is. That's 3.6 pts/minute. Here's how I see this going. Seattle is going to try to keep a slow tempo in the first, because that's how they play. The second half will open up because they'll be down so they have to push the ball. 36+ should take this prop about 60% of the time.
6. Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A's
Griffinis one of those weird pitchers who likes to throw at home more than on the road. I never got it, I felt I did equally well wherever. It's 60 ft 6 in at every ballpark, maybe its different when you have to travel, not drive an extra 20 minutes in a car...He's got an ERA of 3.06 at home (vs 3.97 on the road). Feldman's difference is even worse 2.54 at home, 4.15 on the road. I'll take the A's who are the better team and have the better pitcher on the mound
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