July 1st!

Ladies and Gentlemen! TheGoldenBlazer Blog is officially back! (We'll see how long it lasts this time).
Anyway let's get some analysis going!

1. Serena vs who cares
SM gave us a bunny prop to start the month.  No analysis necessary.  Serena is a -1600 favorite.  Did you hear that?!?! -1600. End of story.

2. Will there be a break in the first set?
SM basically gives us another bunny here, this time in user submitted form.  No tiebreak in the first set is -400, and in order for there to be no break it would have to go to a tiebreak.  I'd say the odds of a break are somewhere around -600.  Again, no analysis necessary.

3. How many games will Djokovic lose in the third set?
Alright, finally time for an interesting prop.  Exact results of the first set are as follows (assumed to be the same for the third set).
ND 6-3 +300
ND 6-4 +333
ND 6-2 +500
ND 7-6 +600
ND 6-1 +850
ND 7-5 +1100
...and it goes down from there.
From a pure odds standpoint, the implied probability is 48.0% for 3 or 4, and 71.3% for the other results combined.  (There's a ton of juice on these types of random bets.) So adjusting for juice, the probability sits at 38.4% for 3 or 4 and 61.6% for any other number.

Not convinced? Lets go match by match with Djokovic
Round 1: Djokovic wins 6-3, 7-5, 6-4
Round 2: Djokovic wins 7-6, 6-3, 6-1
Round 3: Djokovic wins 6-3, 6-2, 6-2

5 of the 9 sets have been any other number or 55.6%.  Although this isn't a sufficient sample size, it is on line with what the odds tell us.

4. Will Posey or Votto get a hit in their first PA?
Votto has a batting average of .326 this season with 60 walks and 3 HBP while Posey is hitting .322 with 32 walks and 4 HPB. We are plenty deep enough into the season that these averages are statistically significant.

Without accounting for pitching, these averages imply that there is a 52.2% chance of neither getting at hit.  (You can do the math yourself if you'd like).

Kickham is more difficult to account for since he's only pitched in two major league games.  So we'll start with Arroyo.  He gives up at hit to 24.2% of the hitters he faces. H/(IP*3+H+BB+HPB).  Also, this number drops to 23.6% at home.

In Kickham's two starts he has given up a hit in 30.8% of at bats.

Thus, combining the two pitchers yields a 52.4% chance that neither give up hits.  This is reasonably close to a 50-50 prop, but I'll take no hit.

5. Will a homerun be hit in innings 3-5?
I think this one is easier than it appears.  Arroyo gives up a .374 of a homerun in 3 inning periods.  Kickham gives up a 1.17 homeruns in a 3 inning period.  (Keep in mind he's only started twice).  Additionally, Great American Ballpark is traditionally a homerun park, currently ranked #5 this year according to ESPN's "park factors" I don't know how that is calculated, but I do know the ball flies out of that park.  I'm going yes.

6. How many runs will be scored in the 7th and 8th innings?
Cincinnati relievers have an ERA of 3.82 while San Francisco relievers have an ERA of 3.13.  This equals out to 1.544 runs/2 innings.  Essentially this is a 50-50 prop.  I think my pick will be based more on where each team is in their lineup than anything else.