November 1st

The blog is back!!!!!!!! Ladies and gentleman, join the Blazer this November for some good old streaking fun.  I'll be posting writeups every night to help aid with your picks.  My posts are highly stat based, and my goal is always to make the "right" pick.

Andy Murray games lost 4 or less, 5 or more.

This match will be best of 3 sets.  Murray is a -450 favorite to win 2-0.  Assuming he wins in straight sets, he'll need 4 breaks and no losses on his own serve to win the prop.  That would be breaking 50% of the time.  In the only match between these two, it was a best of 5 match that Murray won 6-3, 6-4, 6-3. This prop really seems to favor 5 or more, so that's what I'll be going with.

Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna or draw

Cup games are very difficult to predict because often it will depend on the lineups both teams put out more than anything.  Osasuna is currently dead last in La Liga and have not gotten a road result in 5 attempts.  Sporting Gijon is 12th in the Segunda Division.  They've posted a pretty good home record of 3-1-1.  I'll take Osasuna to win or draw though, I'd much rather roll with the higher division team.

Logan Thomas Total Yards vs Stephen Morris passing yards

Logan Thomas has 1910 passing yards already this year, for 239 per game, or 119.5 per half.  Adding to that 18.6 rushing yards per half gives him an average of 138.1 total yards per half.  Stephen Morris has 2214 passing yards this season in Miami's for 138.4 passing yards per half.  Didn't think SM would make it easy did you? Certainly possible this comes down to who gets the ball first, but there are two other important things to look at.  First, how often does each player get the ball? In 544 plays, Logan Thomas has either rushed or passed the ball, 340 times, or 62.5% of the time.  Stephen Morris has passed the ball on 56% of plays he's been in the game.  Although this may look to favor Thomas, I think it actually favors Morris because 27% of Thomas's plays are runs, or 17% of all of VT's plays and he only averages 3.2 yards per carry.  The second thing to look at is defense, Miami's defense gives up 32.4 points per game, compared to 24.0 for Virginia Tech.  Additionally, Miami is 4th worst in the nation in run defense, giving up 249 yards per game on the ground. Also, Virginia Tech gives up only 203 passing yards per game compared to 250 for Miami.  On the basis of the differences between the defenses I'll take Thomas to win the prop.

Will both teams score a TD in the 3rd quarter?
During the season so far, VT and their opponent have both scored a TD in the 3rd quarter in 3 of the 8 games.  For Miami, that drops to 1 of the 8 times.  The O/U on the game is set at 58, which is approximately 14.5 points per quarter, but keep in mind, the 3rd quarter is often the lowest scoring.  I'll gladly take No.

Vancouver Whitecaps WDL1 vs L.A. Galaxy 2+
WDL1 is becoming more like a tie option on a nine hole prop.  The Whitecaps have only lost 5 of their 17 road games by two or more.  Both of the times they played the Galaxy in L.A. though, they lost by 2 or more.  In the home matchup, it was a 2-2 draw.  The Galaxy won 8 of their 17 home games by two or more, including 4 of the last 6.  Interestingly, only 9 of the 17 home games did L.A. score two or more goals, although they were 2nd in the MLS in goals scored.  L.A. home GD is +11, and the Whitecaps on the road is 0.  I'll take the Whitecaps to win, draw, or lose by one.