June 11th

1) France scores in the first half?
While England won't have much scoring power in the attacking third, their defense should be very solid.  They'll have a solid back 4 in Cole, Terry, Lescott, and Johnson.  In addition to superb goalkeeping from Joe Hart.  While France scored very well in friendlys, they were going up against nearly the defense they will be.  I'll take no.

2) First goal of the 2nd half, 70 min or earlier vs 71st or later or no goal.
This is a game that could very easily be 0-0 at halftime, but eventually one of the teams will need to take a risk.  Now, there are 25 minutes from halftime until this prop ends and 20 minutes until the game ends from the time the prop ends.  That means, if the picker believes there will be a goal scored in the 2nd half, they should take 70th min or earlier, because there is a better chance of it being scored in that 25 minute window than in the 20 minute window after that.  If the streaker believes there could be two goals scored, which is a definite possibility 70th or earlier would seem like a near lock. I'll take 70th or earlier.

3) Sweden vs Ukraine or draw
While I do have Sweden advancing to the quarterfinals, there's no way I can take them in this prop.  The stadium will be absolutely nuts.  After watching 3 days of play the Ukraine fans will be incredibly excited for their team to play.  I don't think Sweden is leaps and bounds better than this Ukraine team, and since Ukraine gets the draw as well, I'll take that.

4) Hit in the top of the 1st?
The Red Sox likely will start Posednik, Pedroia, Gonzalez, and then Ortiz.  Posednik has been on fire this year hitting .368, but I don't believe that will necessarily continue.  Pedroia is at .277, however has gone 2 for 20 in his last 20 ABs, followed by Gonzalez at .266.  Combined this adds up to a 66% chance of a hit from those 3.  Josh Johnson has a WHIP of 1.49 this season and has given up a hit in the first inning in 9 of his 12 starts.  I definitely think a hit in the 1st is a pretty big favorite here.

5)HR innings 3-5?
Johnson has given up 3 HR's in 71 innings this year.  That comes out to12.6% chance he gives up a HR in 3 innings.  Beckett has given up 9 HR's in 71 and a third innings this year, which comes out to 38.0% chance he gives up a HR in 3 innings.  Boston has 71 HR's in 60 games and Miami has 50 HR's in 60 games.  That comes out to a combines 121 HR's in 120 games, or 33.6% chance in 3 innings.  However, in Miami, there have been 48 HR's in 32 games, which comes out to exactly 50% chance in 3 innings.  It'll partially depend on where each team is in their lineup, but I like No.

6) 7 pitch plate appearance?
This one seems impossible to statistically cover.  The best I could find is Miami relievers rank 11th with an average of 3.94 pitches/AB, and Boston relievers rank 17th with 3.90 pitches/AB.  I heard somewhere 75% of the time a full count is reached, the next pitch is a foul ball.  This would green yes pickers.  I also know No won last time. Backtracked a few games, Boston had 11 7 pitch PA's in their last series (vs Washington) (27 half innings), and Miami had 12 7 pitch PA's in their last series vs Tampa Bay (27 half innings).  That combines to 23 7 pitch AB's in 27 innings.  Which seems to give an advantage to yes.

7) Angels vs Dodgers
The Angels have been on a run lately, 13-4 in their last 17, while the Dodgers have the best record of any team.  The Dodgers are 9th in runs scored, compared to the Angels in 20th.  On the mound for the Dodgers is Chris Capuano, who while having a very good season so far, 2.82 ERA, 8-2, has struggled a bit in his last 2 outings giving up 4 earned runs to both Colorado and Philadelphia in only 5 innings of work, but those were road starts against the 4th and 10th best offenses in the majors.  Against him will be Richards who has only one start this season giving up only 1 run in 7 innings of work against the Mariners.  The Mariners don't have a very impressive offense at 18th in runs scored.  I find it hard to take a pitcher who has only had 4 starts in his major league career against such a good team.  I'll take the Dodgers.