May 6th

A beautiful 7-1 day to get me back in the groove and push my record far above the .500 mark at 19-14.  Nice job Juan Carlo in the top 5 of the monthly board currently, everyone better look out!

1) City vs Newcastle or Draw.
Although this initially looks like a very easy pick, as City needs the win in order to stay atop the Premier League, and barring a collapse against QPR at home, a win here should essentially guarantee them the title.  However, this game is not as simple as that.  Newcastle has only lost twice at home the entire season to Chelsea and WBA, but do have an impressive 3-0 smashing over Man Utd, as well as draws against Arsenal and Tottenham.  City's road record isn't anything to write home about either, having won only 9 of 18 road games.  I'm still taking City, but I'd stay away if you're going for streak and have a decent one going.

2) Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers
I would love to take the Bulls in this one, but I just can't convince myself to do that.  In game 3, Philadelphia shot a pitiful 34.2% from the field, and 7.1% from 3.  And they won.  Now the Bulls may be without Noah as well.  Sorry Chicago, when Rose went down, so did the season.  If Noah is playing I might go 85+ in the first half, and if a second half prop is added, I'll pick those two and write them up.

3) Heat DD vs Knicks SDL/W or Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants
This pick is completely dependent Amare Stoudemire playing.  If Stoudemire plays, I'll take the Knicks SDL/W, if not, I'll take Cain and the Giants.  Knicks SDL/W for three reasons.  First,  if New York has any pride left after getting trashed so far this series, maybe they can pull it together for game 4 and at least give their fans something to root for.  Secondly, SDL/W has a tendancy to win on SFTC.  I think this is because when a team is fouling at the end of the game they tend to stop before the other team reaches a double digit lead.  Finally, F*** the Heat, if I end up losing one pick picking against them, so be it, its worth it.

4) A run in the first 2 innings? Yes or No?
For a run to be scored in the first inning is a +150 underdog, but combine that with another +150 underdog in the second, and the odds state one should be scored.  I'll take my chance with an early run by someone.  Disclaimer 1-4 record in baseball

5) HR innings 4-6? Yes or No?
This game is going to be dominated by the pitching.  For no HR to be hit the whole game is a +135 underdog.  That means a 3 inning section of the game seems very unlikely, I'll take No.

6) XBH in the 8th? Yes or No?
Have to go with No just like in the HR prop.  This game will be dominated by the pitching staffs.  I don't think the score will be higher than 4-3 or so.

7) Denver Nuggets vs L.A. Lakers
There's a few important things to look at for this one.  The first is in the previous 3 games in the series, Denver has shot 35.6%, 44.0%, and 39.8%. Compared to L.A.'s 50.0%, 44.8%, 37.2%.  Denver has been shooting horrifically, and keep in mind, the only game they've won this series was a 15 point blowout in game 3, and they only shot 2.6% better than L.A!  Game 2 was close, and Game 1 was a blowout in the Lakers favor.  L.A. shot incredibly well, and Denver shot extremely poor which led to the Game 1 blowout, I don't see that happening here, so no blowout for L.A.  Secondly, L.A. was an awful 15-18 on the road this season, included losses to Washington and two to Sacramento, and lost their only regular season game against Denver.  Finally, L.A. seemed to have no answer for Faried or McGee in game 3.  If you watched the game, Faried beat L.A. to every loose ball, pulled down 15 rebounds and had 12 points.  McGee also had 15 rebounds, along with 16 points, and an unheardof +30 +/- (score difference when player is on the court)  I'll take Denver to equal the series 2-2.