April 1st

2-0 vs Messenger

1. Newcastle United W/D vs Liverpool

Newcastle's only lost 2 games at home so far this season.  Tack onto that Liverpool's 6-9 (for prop purposes) on the road.  I'm surprised the line is as close as it is for this prop.
I'll take Newcastle.

2. Tottenham 2+ vs Swansea W/D/LB1

This one is tricky, the line slightly favors Swansea, but here's the interesting data I've found that makes this prop a little more than meets the eye.

First in Tottenham's 10 home wins, 7 of them have been by 2 or more goals.  Secondly, 6 of Swansea's 8 road losses have been by 2 or more goals.  This means that if Tottenham wins the game, there is a pretty decent chance it will be by two or more goals.
However, looking at the recent form of these two sides. Tottenham hasnt won in 5 games, and Swansea has won 3 times in the last 5 games, (note: the two losses in the last 5 were both by 2+).  Swansea gives up only 1.2 Goals/game, and 1.6 goals/road game.  Which means if they can net one, W/D/LB1 looks pretty good, I'll take my chances with that.

3. Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray

Not much analysis needed for this one, go Djokovic, dont get cute, its the first of the month.

4. Heat vs Celtics

Dont really see the Celtics standing a chance in this one.  I think the Heat will beat them pretty good up and down the court.  The Heat have a huge physical advantage, and I think that leads them to a nice win over the Celts.

5. 8 or fewer/ 9 or more

Skylar shoot a lot.  As in wayyy too much, even for the best player on the team.  She took 21 shots in the win over Maryland (not including 7 free throw attempts). And 19 in the last game against Uconn. To put it in perspective LeBron James is averaging 18 shots per game this season, and that's in 48 minutes, Skylar does it in 40.  9 points does seem like a lot, especially considering ND will probably only have around 30-35 at halftime, but I thinkn Skylar will take this game in her hands (for better or worse) and score 9 in the first.

6. 62 or fewer/63 or more

I realize this is women's basketball and the stereotype is they score less, but in reality this isn't completely the case, partially due to a 30 second shot clock as opposed to 35.  The line on this game is 130 which is 65 per half.  I find it hard to believe itll go under 63 in the second half. So I'm going 63 or more.

7. Baylor DD vs Stanford W/SDL

This is a very tough one.  The line is set at -7, and when you look at Baylor's work against top 10 teams, theyre 2-2 for prop purposes.  My heart says Baylor will blow anyone in the country out, but this is the final four, surely stanford can at least make a game of it.  Going Stanford W/SDL