1. Who will win the race, Gripel/Sagan/Cav vs AOR?
Why would you even look at this suggestion. Go look at uconnryan and mwallack, seriously.
2. Murray 3-0 vs AOR
In sets lifetime against Verdasco, Murray is 19-6. Just this implies that there is a 43.9% chance that Murray wins 3-0. However, all of their matches except one were played on hard surface and they've never played on grass, which is Murray's speciality. I think Murray should win 3-0, but I think it'll be much closer than the -200 odds suggest, and I'd say there's a decent chance Murray has to win a tiebreak at some point which will really get your heart sweating.
3. South Korea or Draw vs Colombia
Barely won both of the U20 WC games yesterday with Spain pulling it out by the skin of their teeth. Colombia won its group with 7 points, they fought off a mysterious draw with a poor Australian side in their first match with back to back wins to advance. The South Koreans advanced from the third spot in their group, their only win being a 2-1 win over Cuba (who lost by 3 and 5 to Nigeria and Portugal respectively). They drew Portugal, but were outshot 17-8 in that game. I think the South Koreans were lucky to advance and get torched by Colombia here.
4. Will Harvey have a K in each of the first three innings?
This season Harvey has 132 K's in 117 innings. So my inital thought is no. Arizona ranks 20th in the majors in strikeouts (#1 has the most strikeouts). The end of their lineup is especially good at not striking out (Gregorious @16.9%, and Prado @ 10.3%), so I'd more look toward the second inning, but I think with 3 chances at it, the no is definitely the favorite.
5. Will the Diamondbacks score in the 5th or 6th?
I think no is the favorite here as well. The O/U is set at 7.0 and the Mets are heavy favorites (Dbacks O/U won't be up til tomorrow). Harvey will still be dealing, and it's possible the Dbacks pitcher will take an at bat in the 5th. Without seeing where the lineups are at, I can't say my confidence level, but I'd definitely call No the favorite.
6. Will any batter reach a full count in the top of the 8th?
Looked at the last 10 Dbacks games. In 90 innings, No won 52 times good for 57.8%. Now I know there are a lot of factors that go into this, where the Dbacks are in their lineup (the bottom of the lineup seems to force longer counts). Who's pitching for the Mets, etc. But as a blanket statement, No looks like the better pick.
7. A's vs Cubs
As I type this the A's are down 5-3, but I'll be taking them tomorrow anyway. Colon is 11-2 with a nasty 2.79 ERA this season, and Garza is sitting at 3.83. Plus the A's are the better team and at home. Easy pick.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Monday, July 1, 2013
July 2nd
Well rats. Looks like I'll have to chalk up a missed pick on the Rays. I was in between sets of military press. Checked before I did my set, no HR, after my set, Rays locked. If I lose monthly on a tiebreaker I'll never do a military press again. Here's about how I feel right now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk Oh well, we move on!
1. Li Na vs Radwanska
Women's tennis rarely gives a ton of stats, but here's what I can tell you. Li Na is 6-4 all time against Radwanska, technically 1-2 on grass, although one was due to retire, so we'll call it 1-1. Li Na has a tendancy to struggle at Wimbledon, only making it to the round of 16 3 of 7 times. Radwanska is far better at Wimbledon, with 3 of her last 5 tournaments making the quarterfinals, including a finals appearance. I think the edge goes to Radwanska, but she is a reasonable vegas underdog. I have to count on the head to head record above all else, so my pick will be Li Na, but I think this is far more 50-50 than it seems.
2. Spain U20 win vs Mexico U20 W/D
I don't think this one is much of a question, Spain flew through their group, going 3-0 and beating some very good teams (Ghana, France). Mexico limped their way in as a third place qualifier. Add in that Spain is -200, and I have to take the Spanish side.
3. France vs Turkey (to qualify)
I think this is another reasonably easy soccer pick by SM. France was in a rough group, and despite a mystery draw to the US. played very well. Turkey was in a weak group, and though they did what was required to advance, I don't see them getting past the French.
4. Elena Della Donne + Prince 19 or fewer pts or 20 or more
WNBA games are much more difficult to find stats on than NBA games, I don't feel like going through the play by play and there's no halftime split. Now look, I like Elena Della Donne, not just as a player, or as a person, but she's also very attractive, like she's my second biggest celebrity crush behind Alex Morgan, but usually the first half of the game is lower scoring than the second. Additionally, the Storm tend to play a slower pace than most of the WNBA, think Chicago Bulls. Della Donne and Prince combine for 38.2, which is roughly 19.1 per half. Also, that's just this season, over Prince's career she's only averaging 13.9. I'm taking the under and hoping Elena Della Donne friends me on Facebook anyway.
5. How many points will be scored in the third? 35- or 36+
This is one of SM's favorite props, because everyone likes to think the WNBA can't score, which is true, and they miss layups all the time, which is true, and they only play 10 minute quarters, which is true, but 36 points in a quarter is a lot less than you think it is. That's 3.6 pts/minute. Here's how I see this going. Seattle is going to try to keep a slow tempo in the first, because that's how they play. The second half will open up because they'll be down so they have to push the ball. 36+ should take this prop about 60% of the time.
6. Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A's
Griffinis one of those weird pitchers who likes to throw at home more than on the road. I never got it, I felt I did equally well wherever. It's 60 ft 6 in at every ballpark, maybe its different when you have to travel, not drive an extra 20 minutes in a car...He's got an ERA of 3.06 at home (vs 3.97 on the road). Feldman's difference is even worse 2.54 at home, 4.15 on the road. I'll take the A's who are the better team and have the better pitcher on the mound
1. Li Na vs Radwanska
Women's tennis rarely gives a ton of stats, but here's what I can tell you. Li Na is 6-4 all time against Radwanska, technically 1-2 on grass, although one was due to retire, so we'll call it 1-1. Li Na has a tendancy to struggle at Wimbledon, only making it to the round of 16 3 of 7 times. Radwanska is far better at Wimbledon, with 3 of her last 5 tournaments making the quarterfinals, including a finals appearance. I think the edge goes to Radwanska, but she is a reasonable vegas underdog. I have to count on the head to head record above all else, so my pick will be Li Na, but I think this is far more 50-50 than it seems.
2. Spain U20 win vs Mexico U20 W/D
I don't think this one is much of a question, Spain flew through their group, going 3-0 and beating some very good teams (Ghana, France). Mexico limped their way in as a third place qualifier. Add in that Spain is -200, and I have to take the Spanish side.
3. France vs Turkey (to qualify)
I think this is another reasonably easy soccer pick by SM. France was in a rough group, and despite a mystery draw to the US. played very well. Turkey was in a weak group, and though they did what was required to advance, I don't see them getting past the French.
4. Elena Della Donne + Prince 19 or fewer pts or 20 or more
WNBA games are much more difficult to find stats on than NBA games, I don't feel like going through the play by play and there's no halftime split. Now look, I like Elena Della Donne, not just as a player, or as a person, but she's also very attractive, like she's my second biggest celebrity crush behind Alex Morgan, but usually the first half of the game is lower scoring than the second. Additionally, the Storm tend to play a slower pace than most of the WNBA, think Chicago Bulls. Della Donne and Prince combine for 38.2, which is roughly 19.1 per half. Also, that's just this season, over Prince's career she's only averaging 13.9. I'm taking the under and hoping Elena Della Donne friends me on Facebook anyway.
5. How many points will be scored in the third? 35- or 36+
This is one of SM's favorite props, because everyone likes to think the WNBA can't score, which is true, and they miss layups all the time, which is true, and they only play 10 minute quarters, which is true, but 36 points in a quarter is a lot less than you think it is. That's 3.6 pts/minute. Here's how I see this going. Seattle is going to try to keep a slow tempo in the first, because that's how they play. The second half will open up because they'll be down so they have to push the ball. 36+ should take this prop about 60% of the time.
6. Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A's
Griffinis one of those weird pitchers who likes to throw at home more than on the road. I never got it, I felt I did equally well wherever. It's 60 ft 6 in at every ballpark, maybe its different when you have to travel, not drive an extra 20 minutes in a car...He's got an ERA of 3.06 at home (vs 3.97 on the road). Feldman's difference is even worse 2.54 at home, 4.15 on the road. I'll take the A's who are the better team and have the better pitcher on the mound
Sunday, June 30, 2013
July 1st!
Ladies and Gentlemen! TheGoldenBlazer Blog is officially back! (We'll see how long it lasts this time).
Anyway let's get some analysis going!
1. Serena vs who cares
SM gave us a bunny prop to start the month. No analysis necessary. Serena is a -1600 favorite. Did you hear that?!?! -1600. End of story.
2. Will there be a break in the first set?
SM basically gives us another bunny here, this time in user submitted form. No tiebreak in the first set is -400, and in order for there to be no break it would have to go to a tiebreak. I'd say the odds of a break are somewhere around -600. Again, no analysis necessary.
3. How many games will Djokovic lose in the third set?
Alright, finally time for an interesting prop. Exact results of the first set are as follows (assumed to be the same for the third set).
ND 6-3 +300
ND 6-4 +333
ND 6-2 +500
ND 7-6 +600
ND 6-1 +850
ND 7-5 +1100
...and it goes down from there.
From a pure odds standpoint, the implied probability is 48.0% for 3 or 4, and 71.3% for the other results combined. (There's a ton of juice on these types of random bets.) So adjusting for juice, the probability sits at 38.4% for 3 or 4 and 61.6% for any other number.
Not convinced? Lets go match by match with Djokovic
Round 1: Djokovic wins 6-3, 7-5, 6-4
Round 2: Djokovic wins 7-6, 6-3, 6-1
Round 3: Djokovic wins 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
5 of the 9 sets have been any other number or 55.6%. Although this isn't a sufficient sample size, it is on line with what the odds tell us.
4. Will Posey or Votto get a hit in their first PA?
Votto has a batting average of .326 this season with 60 walks and 3 HBP while Posey is hitting .322 with 32 walks and 4 HPB. We are plenty deep enough into the season that these averages are statistically significant.
Without accounting for pitching, these averages imply that there is a 52.2% chance of neither getting at hit. (You can do the math yourself if you'd like).
Kickham is more difficult to account for since he's only pitched in two major league games. So we'll start with Arroyo. He gives up at hit to 24.2% of the hitters he faces. H/(IP*3+H+BB+HPB). Also, this number drops to 23.6% at home.
In Kickham's two starts he has given up a hit in 30.8% of at bats.
Thus, combining the two pitchers yields a 52.4% chance that neither give up hits. This is reasonably close to a 50-50 prop, but I'll take no hit.
5. Will a homerun be hit in innings 3-5?
I think this one is easier than it appears. Arroyo gives up a .374 of a homerun in 3 inning periods. Kickham gives up a 1.17 homeruns in a 3 inning period. (Keep in mind he's only started twice). Additionally, Great American Ballpark is traditionally a homerun park, currently ranked #5 this year according to ESPN's "park factors" I don't know how that is calculated, but I do know the ball flies out of that park. I'm going yes.
6. How many runs will be scored in the 7th and 8th innings?
Cincinnati relievers have an ERA of 3.82 while San Francisco relievers have an ERA of 3.13. This equals out to 1.544 runs/2 innings. Essentially this is a 50-50 prop. I think my pick will be based more on where each team is in their lineup than anything else.
Anyway let's get some analysis going!
1. Serena vs who cares
SM gave us a bunny prop to start the month. No analysis necessary. Serena is a -1600 favorite. Did you hear that?!?! -1600. End of story.
2. Will there be a break in the first set?
SM basically gives us another bunny here, this time in user submitted form. No tiebreak in the first set is -400, and in order for there to be no break it would have to go to a tiebreak. I'd say the odds of a break are somewhere around -600. Again, no analysis necessary.
3. How many games will Djokovic lose in the third set?
Alright, finally time for an interesting prop. Exact results of the first set are as follows (assumed to be the same for the third set).
ND 6-3 +300
ND 6-4 +333
ND 6-2 +500
ND 7-6 +600
ND 6-1 +850
ND 7-5 +1100
...and it goes down from there.
From a pure odds standpoint, the implied probability is 48.0% for 3 or 4, and 71.3% for the other results combined. (There's a ton of juice on these types of random bets.) So adjusting for juice, the probability sits at 38.4% for 3 or 4 and 61.6% for any other number.
Not convinced? Lets go match by match with Djokovic
Round 1: Djokovic wins 6-3, 7-5, 6-4
Round 2: Djokovic wins 7-6, 6-3, 6-1
Round 3: Djokovic wins 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
5 of the 9 sets have been any other number or 55.6%. Although this isn't a sufficient sample size, it is on line with what the odds tell us.
4. Will Posey or Votto get a hit in their first PA?
Votto has a batting average of .326 this season with 60 walks and 3 HBP while Posey is hitting .322 with 32 walks and 4 HPB. We are plenty deep enough into the season that these averages are statistically significant.
Without accounting for pitching, these averages imply that there is a 52.2% chance of neither getting at hit. (You can do the math yourself if you'd like).
Kickham is more difficult to account for since he's only pitched in two major league games. So we'll start with Arroyo. He gives up at hit to 24.2% of the hitters he faces. H/(IP*3+H+BB+HPB). Also, this number drops to 23.6% at home.
In Kickham's two starts he has given up a hit in 30.8% of at bats.
Thus, combining the two pitchers yields a 52.4% chance that neither give up hits. This is reasonably close to a 50-50 prop, but I'll take no hit.
5. Will a homerun be hit in innings 3-5?
I think this one is easier than it appears. Arroyo gives up a .374 of a homerun in 3 inning periods. Kickham gives up a 1.17 homeruns in a 3 inning period. (Keep in mind he's only started twice). Additionally, Great American Ballpark is traditionally a homerun park, currently ranked #5 this year according to ESPN's "park factors" I don't know how that is calculated, but I do know the ball flies out of that park. I'm going yes.
6. How many runs will be scored in the 7th and 8th innings?
Cincinnati relievers have an ERA of 3.82 while San Francisco relievers have an ERA of 3.13. This equals out to 1.544 runs/2 innings. Essentially this is a 50-50 prop. I think my pick will be based more on where each team is in their lineup than anything else.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
November 2nd
Berdych 2-0 vs Simon AOR
This one is tricky because Simon has fared very well against Berdych, winning 4 of the 6 matches between the two. However, they haven't played since 2009 when Berdych was down in the twentyish rankings (he is now 6th) Simon has also been cold lately, having lost 3 of his last 5 matches. I'll still take Simon to win at least a set based on the past, but I think this is pretty much a tossup.
Esbjerg vs Silkeborg or draw
Both of these teams are in the bottom of the league. Silkeborg is surprisingly decent on the road, with 3 W/D in 7 matches, while Esbjerg has only won once at home in 7 matches. I'll take the draw option.
I don't know enough about horses to do much more than go off odds, so here goes nothing:
Juvenile Sprint: Merit Man is a -120 favorite or so. That pick looked a lot better when Super Ninety Nine was in the race (has been scratched) but I'll still take Merit Man.
Marathon: AOPP: I'd much rather have the outside horses. Pretty even on odds, but the top two horses are in the first and second stall, and its possible they get caught on the rail a bit at the start. Shouldn't make as much difference in a marathon as it could in a sprint, but I'll still go AOPP.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Next one is one of the tougher ones. I'm going to take any other horse, but I think this one could easily go to the favored horses.
Grey Goose: AOH, Executvie privilge is the favorite but still a +150 dog. I'll take someone to beat her out.
Filly/Mare turf: I think I'll take The Fugue to be in the top two. Just a guess more than anything
Ladies Classic: AOR, Royal Delta is barely even a favorite in this one at +300, I'll gladly take AOH.
There's my horse picks, wouldn't really recommend them, I don't know much about horses.
This one is tricky because Simon has fared very well against Berdych, winning 4 of the 6 matches between the two. However, they haven't played since 2009 when Berdych was down in the twentyish rankings (he is now 6th) Simon has also been cold lately, having lost 3 of his last 5 matches. I'll still take Simon to win at least a set based on the past, but I think this is pretty much a tossup.
Esbjerg vs Silkeborg or draw
Both of these teams are in the bottom of the league. Silkeborg is surprisingly decent on the road, with 3 W/D in 7 matches, while Esbjerg has only won once at home in 7 matches. I'll take the draw option.
I don't know enough about horses to do much more than go off odds, so here goes nothing:
Juvenile Sprint: Merit Man is a -120 favorite or so. That pick looked a lot better when Super Ninety Nine was in the race (has been scratched) but I'll still take Merit Man.
Marathon: AOPP: I'd much rather have the outside horses. Pretty even on odds, but the top two horses are in the first and second stall, and its possible they get caught on the rail a bit at the start. Shouldn't make as much difference in a marathon as it could in a sprint, but I'll still go AOPP.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Next one is one of the tougher ones. I'm going to take any other horse, but I think this one could easily go to the favored horses.
Grey Goose: AOH, Executvie privilge is the favorite but still a +150 dog. I'll take someone to beat her out.
Filly/Mare turf: I think I'll take The Fugue to be in the top two. Just a guess more than anything
Ladies Classic: AOR, Royal Delta is barely even a favorite in this one at +300, I'll gladly take AOH.
There's my horse picks, wouldn't really recommend them, I don't know much about horses.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
November 1st
The blog is back!!!!!!!! Ladies and gentleman, join the Blazer this November for some good old streaking fun. I'll be posting writeups every night to help aid with your picks. My posts are highly stat based, and my goal is always to make the "right" pick.
Andy Murray games lost 4 or less, 5 or more.
This match will be best of 3 sets. Murray is a -450 favorite to win 2-0. Assuming he wins in straight sets, he'll need 4 breaks and no losses on his own serve to win the prop. That would be breaking 50% of the time. In the only match between these two, it was a best of 5 match that Murray won 6-3, 6-4, 6-3. This prop really seems to favor 5 or more, so that's what I'll be going with.
Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna or draw
Cup games are very difficult to predict because often it will depend on the lineups both teams put out more than anything. Osasuna is currently dead last in La Liga and have not gotten a road result in 5 attempts. Sporting Gijon is 12th in the Segunda Division. They've posted a pretty good home record of 3-1-1. I'll take Osasuna to win or draw though, I'd much rather roll with the higher division team.
Logan Thomas Total Yards vs Stephen Morris passing yards
Logan Thomas has 1910 passing yards already this year, for 239 per game, or 119.5 per half. Adding to that 18.6 rushing yards per half gives him an average of 138.1 total yards per half. Stephen Morris has 2214 passing yards this season in Miami's for 138.4 passing yards per half. Didn't think SM would make it easy did you? Certainly possible this comes down to who gets the ball first, but there are two other important things to look at. First, how often does each player get the ball? In 544 plays, Logan Thomas has either rushed or passed the ball, 340 times, or 62.5% of the time. Stephen Morris has passed the ball on 56% of plays he's been in the game. Although this may look to favor Thomas, I think it actually favors Morris because 27% of Thomas's plays are runs, or 17% of all of VT's plays and he only averages 3.2 yards per carry. The second thing to look at is defense, Miami's defense gives up 32.4 points per game, compared to 24.0 for Virginia Tech. Additionally, Miami is 4th worst in the nation in run defense, giving up 249 yards per game on the ground. Also, Virginia Tech gives up only 203 passing yards per game compared to 250 for Miami. On the basis of the differences between the defenses I'll take Thomas to win the prop.
Will both teams score a TD in the 3rd quarter?
During the season so far, VT and their opponent have both scored a TD in the 3rd quarter in 3 of the 8 games. For Miami, that drops to 1 of the 8 times. The O/U on the game is set at 58, which is approximately 14.5 points per quarter, but keep in mind, the 3rd quarter is often the lowest scoring. I'll gladly take No.
Vancouver Whitecaps WDL1 vs L.A. Galaxy 2+
WDL1 is becoming more like a tie option on a nine hole prop. The Whitecaps have only lost 5 of their 17 road games by two or more. Both of the times they played the Galaxy in L.A. though, they lost by 2 or more. In the home matchup, it was a 2-2 draw. The Galaxy won 8 of their 17 home games by two or more, including 4 of the last 6. Interestingly, only 9 of the 17 home games did L.A. score two or more goals, although they were 2nd in the MLS in goals scored. L.A. home GD is +11, and the Whitecaps on the road is 0. I'll take the Whitecaps to win, draw, or lose by one.
Andy Murray games lost 4 or less, 5 or more.
This match will be best of 3 sets. Murray is a -450 favorite to win 2-0. Assuming he wins in straight sets, he'll need 4 breaks and no losses on his own serve to win the prop. That would be breaking 50% of the time. In the only match between these two, it was a best of 5 match that Murray won 6-3, 6-4, 6-3. This prop really seems to favor 5 or more, so that's what I'll be going with.
Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna or draw
Cup games are very difficult to predict because often it will depend on the lineups both teams put out more than anything. Osasuna is currently dead last in La Liga and have not gotten a road result in 5 attempts. Sporting Gijon is 12th in the Segunda Division. They've posted a pretty good home record of 3-1-1. I'll take Osasuna to win or draw though, I'd much rather roll with the higher division team.
Logan Thomas Total Yards vs Stephen Morris passing yards
Logan Thomas has 1910 passing yards already this year, for 239 per game, or 119.5 per half. Adding to that 18.6 rushing yards per half gives him an average of 138.1 total yards per half. Stephen Morris has 2214 passing yards this season in Miami's for 138.4 passing yards per half. Didn't think SM would make it easy did you? Certainly possible this comes down to who gets the ball first, but there are two other important things to look at. First, how often does each player get the ball? In 544 plays, Logan Thomas has either rushed or passed the ball, 340 times, or 62.5% of the time. Stephen Morris has passed the ball on 56% of plays he's been in the game. Although this may look to favor Thomas, I think it actually favors Morris because 27% of Thomas's plays are runs, or 17% of all of VT's plays and he only averages 3.2 yards per carry. The second thing to look at is defense, Miami's defense gives up 32.4 points per game, compared to 24.0 for Virginia Tech. Additionally, Miami is 4th worst in the nation in run defense, giving up 249 yards per game on the ground. Also, Virginia Tech gives up only 203 passing yards per game compared to 250 for Miami. On the basis of the differences between the defenses I'll take Thomas to win the prop.
Will both teams score a TD in the 3rd quarter?
During the season so far, VT and their opponent have both scored a TD in the 3rd quarter in 3 of the 8 games. For Miami, that drops to 1 of the 8 times. The O/U on the game is set at 58, which is approximately 14.5 points per quarter, but keep in mind, the 3rd quarter is often the lowest scoring. I'll gladly take No.
Vancouver Whitecaps WDL1 vs L.A. Galaxy 2+
WDL1 is becoming more like a tie option on a nine hole prop. The Whitecaps have only lost 5 of their 17 road games by two or more. Both of the times they played the Galaxy in L.A. though, they lost by 2 or more. In the home matchup, it was a 2-2 draw. The Galaxy won 8 of their 17 home games by two or more, including 4 of the last 6. Interestingly, only 9 of the 17 home games did L.A. score two or more goals, although they were 2nd in the MLS in goals scored. L.A. home GD is +11, and the Whitecaps on the road is 0. I'll take the Whitecaps to win, draw, or lose by one.
Monday, August 6, 2012
August 7th
1. USA 35+ vs AOR
In group play, the US won by 25 (5), 52 (6), 31 (2), 27 (4), 48 (3), number in parenthesis is where the team ended up placing in the group. Group B results aren't too helpful for Canada as no team has near the strength of the US team, but it should be noted that they never got blown out. I'll take Canada to lose by around 30 or so, but I see this as a tossup.
2. Jordan Wieber to medal?
Wieber hasn't shown the ability to medal. In qualifying she finished 6th. In the team competition she placed 4th as an individual on the floor. Although one of the top 3 spots on the floor was claimed by Gabby Douglas, who won't be in the floor final, I still think there are plenty of other gymnasts to take it. I'll go ahead and make my call Raisman, Ponor, Izabaza.
3. May/Trenaor win 2-0 vs AOR
Have to go AOR in this one. Yes, I understand May/Treanaor have only lost one set in the Olympics ever (39 of 40) but this Chinese team is solid. Chen/Xi haven't lost a set in the 2012 olympics, I'd consider taking them to win the match, but I'll definitely take AOR.
4. Brazil by 2+ vs AOR
Korea has only given up 2 goals in the entire Olympics. That includes one against Great Britain who they beat in the quarterfinals. Brazil hasn't scored less than 3 goals in a match the entire olympics. However, they've only had one clean sheet. I think this turns into a conservative game and so I'll take AOR.
In group play, the US won by 25 (5), 52 (6), 31 (2), 27 (4), 48 (3), number in parenthesis is where the team ended up placing in the group. Group B results aren't too helpful for Canada as no team has near the strength of the US team, but it should be noted that they never got blown out. I'll take Canada to lose by around 30 or so, but I see this as a tossup.
2. Jordan Wieber to medal?
Wieber hasn't shown the ability to medal. In qualifying she finished 6th. In the team competition she placed 4th as an individual on the floor. Although one of the top 3 spots on the floor was claimed by Gabby Douglas, who won't be in the floor final, I still think there are plenty of other gymnasts to take it. I'll go ahead and make my call Raisman, Ponor, Izabaza.
3. May/Trenaor win 2-0 vs AOR
Have to go AOR in this one. Yes, I understand May/Treanaor have only lost one set in the Olympics ever (39 of 40) but this Chinese team is solid. Chen/Xi haven't lost a set in the 2012 olympics, I'd consider taking them to win the match, but I'll definitely take AOR.
4. Brazil by 2+ vs AOR
Korea has only given up 2 goals in the entire Olympics. That includes one against Great Britain who they beat in the quarterfinals. Brazil hasn't scored less than 3 goals in a match the entire olympics. However, they've only had one clean sheet. I think this turns into a conservative game and so I'll take AOR.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
August 6th
1. Will Gabby Douglas medal?
If you read my Yahoo spots locks, you'll see that I don't think there's any way Douglas wins gold, but I don't even expect her to medal, with two competitors who beat her in the uneven bars section of the all around, in addition to two uneven bar specialists (Kexin, Tweddle). I think Gabby will place at best 4th, but probably 5th or lower.
2. France vs Japan
Pretty much a toss up soccer match. Have to roll with the Japanese since they won the last world cup and looked strong against Brazil.
3. USA 2+ vs AOR
Going with AOR because while the US has looked good, Canada has done extremely well in the tournament and is in very good form, I think the US advances, but only by one, or in additional time.
7. Run in the 8th?
The O/U on this game was so low because of the strength of the starting pitchers, however, this prop will likely involve the bullpen, though it is possible Verlander goes that deep in the game. The Yankees bullpen is 7th in ERA, while the Tigers is 18th. The Yankees score the 5th most runs and the Tigers score the 10th most. Comerica is ranked in the middle of parks as far as runs, at 13th. This is pretty much a tossup prop, likely depends on where each team is in their batting order for me.
If you read my Yahoo spots locks, you'll see that I don't think there's any way Douglas wins gold, but I don't even expect her to medal, with two competitors who beat her in the uneven bars section of the all around, in addition to two uneven bar specialists (Kexin, Tweddle). I think Gabby will place at best 4th, but probably 5th or lower.
2. France vs Japan
Pretty much a toss up soccer match. Have to roll with the Japanese since they won the last world cup and looked strong against Brazil.
3. USA 2+ vs AOR
Going with AOR because while the US has looked good, Canada has done extremely well in the tournament and is in very good form, I think the US advances, but only by one, or in additional time.
7. Run in the 8th?
The O/U on this game was so low because of the strength of the starting pitchers, however, this prop will likely involve the bullpen, though it is possible Verlander goes that deep in the game. The Yankees bullpen is 7th in ERA, while the Tigers is 18th. The Yankees score the 5th most runs and the Tigers score the 10th most. Comerica is ranked in the middle of parks as far as runs, at 13th. This is pretty much a tossup prop, likely depends on where each team is in their batting order for me.
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